Quote: Crowds are fickle!

My freshman high school English teacher taught me two things that I remember to this day. The first was the basic formula to write a paper: Intro paragraph with thesis, three body paragraphs each supporting the thesis, conclusion paragraph repeating thesis and summarized version of the body in three sentences.

The second thing was the theme of Shakespeare's Julius Ceasar. She kept on repeating it over and over through each of the five acts of the long play: "Crowds are fickle."

Mark Mellman, who was the lead pollster for Kerry for President way back when, reminds us how fickle the public at large can be. Mellman (who is not connected to either the Obama or Clinton campaign) dismisses the head-to-head polls of McCain vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama.

"People are very mediocre predictors of their own future behavior."

A helpful reminder indeed. I remember reading in 2002 when Bush's popularity was through the roof. Pollsters asked respondents not only did they approve of the job the president was doing, but who they voted for in 2000. One would assume that about 50% of the people would say they voted for Bush. But in poll after poll 60% or 70% of people said they voted for Bush. The most obvious conclusion is that a large number of people remembered voting for someone they didn't actually vote for. If people are that bad at honestly remembering the past, can we truly expect them to give us a useful picture of how they're going to act eight months down the road?

(In fairness, there were probably some afraid in those months after September 11, 2001 to give an answer that could be construed by some stranger as being unpatriotic. The caller could really by John Ashcroft.)

We also don't know what will happen in the world during the next several months that will undoubtedly shape the election.

Frankly, I don't think the argument of electability illuminates an obvious choice for Democrats. I've argued before that I believe Obama is more electable. I still believe that, but not overwhelmingly more electable. The same goes in the reverse. At most, one can credibly argue that Clinton has a slight, but not overwhelming, edge. The real question for the lucky, remaining Democrat primary voters is which candidate do you trust and will better promote your ideals in the White House?

Remember Mellman's words as you see the results of a new poll about next November. I wouldn't take any general election poll at much value until mid-September, a week or two after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention.