Thursday, October 30, 2008

Turtle's Tips: Bizarre web show

Remember way back when the television writers' strike was going on? We were all lamenting our lack of continuous, fresh media content to digest. Many of us went to the web, where original video content was flowing on a daily basis. A new media era was proclaimed. Television was dead.

Then the strike ended. The networks got their shows back up and running. People returned to the comfort of Two and a Half Men and whatnot.

I'm here to tell you there are still good web series out there. Principally hosted by Blip.tv.

A show that is way under-appreciated is Motherhoodlum. Now in its second season, Motherhoodlum tells the tales of Emily, a pretentious performance artist coping with unexpected parenting and the relationship with her fiance, Marty the accountant. They conceived after their first date.

The main characters are pretty screwed up, but everyone else they encounter are more wacky. There's the sex-and-relationship guru, who sneaks out early as he makes the couple do a relaxation exercise. There's the sought after nanny, who is the one doing the interview, not Emily. There's Emily's desperate sister, who is upset at Emily for discovering her boyfriend is just a con artist using kids as props to score with other women at the playground. Emily has her own problems. She's a compulsive liar and has been kicked out of 5, no 6, different mommy groups.

Here's the most recent episode. It's six minutes long. If you want to start from the beginning of the series, check out the archives. Warning: This episode, as well as many others, feature frank talk about sex and a fair amount of strong language.

A Womb Of One’s Own

A Womb Of One's Own


Motherhoodlum is hosted by Offsprung.com, a wonderful parent community that proclaimes "Your life didn't end when theirs began." It was started by writer and occasional Salon contributor Neal Pollock and also hosts Open Salon's Heather Ryan AKA Terrible Mother.


Turtle's Tips is a semi-regular feature on which I shine the light on some little known art, movie, show, music, food, or anything else under the sun. It's a showcase of what I like.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Turtle's Voting Guide: The whole darn ballot

Recently Slate magazine published how their staff were planning on voting in the presidential election under some notion of providing transparency. I know people are clambering, clambering I say, to know how I'm going to vote.

Well, maybe I haven't decided yet? Did you ever consider that?

I'll at least leave you with my thoughts the choices from the top of the ticket to the local questions on my own ballot. This is ballot for Minneapolis Ward 9, Precinct 1 in Minnesota. Incumbents have a *. You can make your own assumptions on how I will vote.

PRESIDENT
  • Chuck Baldwin, Cons - The Constitution Party are kind of like libertarians, except that they are hell-bent to ban abortion and aren't so thrilled with the separation between church and state.
  • Bob Barr, Lib - Got to hand it to Bob Barr. He's his own person.
  • Roger Calero, SWP - I checked out his campaign website, which is hosted by the socialist newspaper he edits, The Militant, which might be a violation of federal campaign and tax law.
  • John McCain, R-While I wouldn't have voted for McCain in 2000, I had respect for him. I no longer hold any respect for him.
  • Cynthia McKinney, Grn - I generally don't vote for people who assault police officers. Conspiracy theorists turn me off too.
  • Ralph Nader, Indep - Nader probably has the biggest ego in this race; and keep in mind that he's competing for that title with Obama, McCain, Barr, AND McKinney.
  • Barack Obama, D - He's a centrist. He's less liberal than John Kerry. But he's a pragmatic and principled centrist. He actually has some plans to deal with our most pressing problems. Plus, I'm more confident that he'll try a couple things first before starting a war.

U.S. SENATE
  • Charles Aldrich, Lib - I once tabled at the Minnesota Libertarian Party convention. It was creepy.
  • Dean Barkley, I - Barkley is a principled centrist. He has mostly well thought-out policy positions and a couple of screwy ones that will go nowhere so who cares. A reasonable choice.
  • Norm Coleman, R* - Coleman is hands-down the most slimy politician in Minnesota, possibly the Midwest. Seriously, he is a do-and-say-anything-to-get-elected guy. Coleman spent 4 years kissing Bush's ass and the last two running away from him. On the eve of the 2006 election all of a sudden he thought that there were problems with the Republican agenda in Washington and the way the war in Iraq was going. Norm must go.
  • Al Franken, D - I liked Al Franken a lot in his previous careers. His play-it-safe, tone-deaf campaign has been underwhelming. But he understands public policy and would vote mostly the right way (party line).
  • James Niemackl, Cons - According to the Star Tribune, he is a "member of the Knights of Columbus and Fraternal Order of Police." Enough said.

MINNESOTA SUPREME COURT AND APPEALS COURT
SUPREME COURT ASSOCIATE JUSTICE
Seat 3
  • Paul H. Anderson * - A respected incumbent associate justice. He was "found qualified" by the Minnesota Women Lawyers.
  • Tim Tingelstad - Has fought to politicize judicial races. Told the Star Tribune: "I believe that justice is served when judges fear God and love the people." Unsurprisingly the religious right wants him elected really bad. He was not found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers.

Seat 4
  • Lorie Skjerven Gidea * - Gidea is a recent appointee and seen as a Tim Pawlenty lackey with little prior judicial experience. Although the Minnesota Women Lawyers found her to be qualified.
  • Deborah Hedlund - Hedlund has also been found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers. I hear that she's kind of crazy in the courtroom. Her campaign YouTube videos are uninspiring.


APPEALS COURT JUDGE
Seat 1
  • Edward Toussaint *- Only one in the race!
Seat 8
  • Thomas J. Kalitowski *- Only one in the race!
Seat 9
  • Roger M. Klaphake *- Only one in the race!
Seat 10
  • Harriet Lansing *- Only one in the race!
Seat 15
  • Kevin G. Ross *- Only one in the race!
Seat 16
  • Dan Griffith - Griffith is running on a platform that judges should be elected, not appointed. He was not found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers.
  • Terri J. Stoneburner * - The incumbent has been endorsed by the Academy of Certified Trial Lawyers and found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers.

SALES TAX AMENDMENT
  • Constitutional amendment: Increase state sales tax by 0.375% to pay for environmental and cultural programs.
Details: "Tax increase amounts to 38 cents on a $100 purchase. Money would be divided among projects related to clean drinking water (33%), natural areas and wildlife habitat (33%), parks and trails (14.25%) and arts and culture (19.75%). Must be approved by a majority of all voters - not voting on the question counts as a "no" vote."
Think of it this way: When you go to Target and buy some diapers, some baby wipes, a cheap plastic toy, vitamins and Advil, oh and then a birthday present for your daughter's friend's six year old birthday party, you might find yourself astonished it all added up to a $100!. Money is tight these days. But if you're spending $100 at Target, you can afford to chip in 38 cents that --with everyone else's contribution--will do tremendous things to clean our waterways, have state parks that are open on Memorial Day weekend, and maybe stop our community theaters from closing. The Legislature and Governor haven't been able to agree to fund our long-term priorities for a couple of decades, so it's up to the voters.

U.S. HOUSE
District 5
  • Barb Davis White, R
  • Keith Ellison, D*-Remember two years ago the contention in the congressional race here? People were freaking out that a "radical," black Muslim would go to Congress. The world didn't fall apart and all those local DFLers spitting venom two years ago are now oddly quiet.
  • Bill McGaughey, I

MINNESOTA HOUSE
District 62A
  • Jim Davnie, D*-Davnie has spent his time in St. Paul working for education reform and funding, addressing the foreclosure crisis, and defending personal equality, among many other things.
  • Dave Shegstad, R-The local crank on Minnehaha Avenue. Shegstads the one who three years before anyone heard of Sarah Palin told us in his write-in City Council run that the "real people" supported him even though evidently the real voters didn't.

4TH DISTRICT COURT
Seat 9
  • Philip D. Bush * - Endorsed by Republicans, Democrats, and even a union.
  • Eugene Link - I can't find anything on the web about the guy. Honestly, why waste voters' time running if you can't put up a simple website or answer the Star Tribune questionnaire?
Seat 53
  • David L. Piper - Piper has gotten the endorsements of numerous prominent Democrats and Republicans, as well as local law enforcement and judicial officials. He was found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers. Umm, and e has a very lawyerly name.
  • Jane Ranum - Ranum has gotten the endorsements of numerous prominent Democrats and Republicans, as well as local law enforcement and judicial officials. She was found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers. Ranum is a former excellent state senator. It'd be nice to have some more qualified women in the judiciary.
Seat 58
  • Thomas F. Haeg - Haeg has gotten the endorsements of numerous prominent Democrats and Republicans, but mostly the wrong ones. He was found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers.
  • James T. Swenson * - Swenson has gotten the endorsements of numerous prominent Democrats and Republicans, but mostly the wrong ones. He was found qualified by the Minnesota Women Lawyers. Perhaps go with the incumbent, even though he's endorsed by Rich Stanek?

HENNEPIN COUNTY SOIL AND WATER SUPERVISOR
Seat 1
  • Kim N. Boyce * - Only choice. Yay!
Seat 3
  • Richard A. Klatte - His most important issue is: "Global Warming. Making big oil companies pay for cleaning the air, water, and soil they've destroyed." Good luck taking down Big Oil on the Hennepin County Soil and Water Board!
  • Ben Torell - "Balancing the Preservation of our Natural Resources while endorsing responsible enjoyment of the outdoors." He's an ATV enthusiast.
  • James Wisker - Has a "Bachelor of Science in Ecology, Evolution and Behavior and am currently employed as the Program Manager for the Regulatory Department at Minnehaha Creek Watershed District." Hey, maybe we want someone actually qualified for this position!
  • Rahn V. Workcuff - "I strongly agree that a marriage should be only between a man and a woman. I am not in favor of same sex marriages. I strongly agree that all MN residence should have affordable health insurance. even if it means new or added cost to businesses. I strongly agree that we dont (sic) need anymore increase in taxes, we are all ready being taxed to death." He's more ambitious than the Klatte taking on Big Oil!
Seat 5
  • Jeffrey A. Beck - Says good things about utilizing ecological principles, but can't write in complete sentences or use punctuation in his position statement.
  • Karl Hanson - Wants to protect private property rights. I'm torn.

MINNEAPOLIS SCHOOL DISTRICT
  • Operating levy: $585 per pupil increase
"$172 tax increase on a $213,000 house. Total per pupil levy if passed: $1,200. To hire more teachers, keep class sizes down, purchase technology and textbooks and improve reading, math and science programs."
The state and federal governments aren't doing their job funding education, so this is the way we have to do it. Improving the schools has a direct impact on housing values, so it's in everyone's best interest to approve the levy.


  • Referendum: Expand school board and elect some members by district
"Minneapolis voters will decide whether to expand the city's school board from seven to nine seats with three elected citywide and six elected by districts, similar to the city's Park and Recreation Board. All are now elected citywide. If approved, the plan would be phased in over two voting cycles."
This measure is thanks to legislation forwarded by Rep. Jim Davnie and supported by the entire Minneapolis legislative delegation. The School Board had an opportunity to put it into effect and move forward, but instead the incumbents chose to fight it by putting it on the ballot and delaying implementation two more years. The current school board, while greatly improved from 4 years ago, is not accountable. Voters don't know who to hold accountable for our failing schools right now. When I wrote each member of the school board about this proposal, only two even responded back to me. That solidified my belief that the current structure doesn't encourage accountability when you have 7 at-large representatives from the entire city.


School Board Member - 3 seats
Vote for 3
  • Carla Bates - Endorsed by the DFL and SEIU. What else do you need?
  • Jill Davis - Endorsed by the DFL, the AFL-CIO, SEIU and the teacher's union. What else do you need?
  • Sharon Henry-Blythe * -Has been an incumbent too long and part of the problem.
  • Lydia Lee * - Lee is running for her second term and has done a good job. A quality board member despite her opposition to the school board reform plan. Endorsed by the DFL, SEIU and the teacher's union. What else do you need?
  • Doug Mann - Local crank that got kicked out of the local NAACP for being disruptive. At least he has a website.
  • Kari Reed - She homeschools her five children. She opposes the current levy proposal because the schools evidently don't need more money, but "creative solutions" like homeschooling and charter schools. I think we know where her priorities lie. She'd be a nightmare on the Board.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Deconstructing relationship advice for women

I was searching for something to read and came across the wife's Women's Health magazine. After skimming through a profile of The Daily Show's Samantha Bee, the next page was the article 15 moments that define a relationship.

Ah, what wisdom will Women's Health impart to the female* masses?

Bold type are excerpts from the article, followed by my commentary. Their advice:

1. Your first talk till dawn
I suppose this makes sense. My wife is not a night person, so I don't think our 9 year relationship is completely solidified yet.

2. The first kiss
Sure, but often a first kiss is awkward and not of the fireworks variety. Does that mean the relationship is doomed? Doomed?!?
3. When he introduces you as "my girlfriend"
Because he's no longer completely embarrassed by you and will acknowledge knowing you!

4. The first morning after... "You want coffee?" he asks the next morning... Please, he' saying by the ease of his actions, stay.
Again, because it's all about how he feels, not you. I like that the guy being casual and politely offering coffee after sex means that he's a keeper.

5. Finding the nerve to say "I love you"... What if he stares at us blankly? What if we're saying it too soon...
It's all about how he responds to the proclamation, not when he says it or demonstrates it.

6. The first time you write "we" in an email to your friends
I remember this well--the codependency stage of the relationship.

7. The first time you fight and make up
I suppose this makes sense. Though my wife and I argued even before we were together--and still do!

8. The first trip together
I can't argue with this one. The most effective test of a relationship is the road trip. My first road trip with my future wife was a week into our relationship. We pilled ourselves and three others into the cramped Mazda Protege and drove 12 hours overnight to Michigan. Maybe they mean a roadtrip alone. Even so, the fact that we didn't kill each other or our companions on that nightmare drive boded well. There were some close moments...

9. The first time you grocery shop together
Nothing is as sexy and romantic as wading through a crowded grocery store on a Sunday afternoon, arguing over what kind of vegetable oil to get. This item goes on to say:
...to watch this man slip a family-sized Fruit Loops into the basket with a dopey grin on his face--that's when you realize you still have worlds to learn about each other.
Remember, it's all about you learning about him. He doesn't need to learn anything about you.

10. The first time he lets you control his car/remote/iPod I'm beginning to sense a theme. He gives you some time with the remote--he is so whipped; and he is so much in your clutches. And check out the accompanying picture! He's giving her the remote so that he can surf the web. How generous!

11. The moment you see a future with him
Does he see a future with you? Doesn't matter.

12. When you notice you are no longer primping for him
It worked the opposite way with my wife and I. It was a sign that our relationship was going somewhere when she successfully convinced me to do something about my hair style (or lack there-of) and to diversify my clothing selection.

13. Going to the doctor together for the first time... because now you need to be healthy for each other.
It's Women's Health magazine after all and they have to throw in something topical about being healthy.

14. When you care for something together
The examples of "something" they give are a "tomato garden" or a "drooling French bulldog." I still don't let anyone, including my wife, interfere with my tomato garden. What does that say about our relationship? We did have a plant early on. It died.

15. When you commit--we're talking long-term commit--to each other... it's a watershed moment when you find yourself so profoundly lucky that someone you adore so much feels exactly the same way about you.
The first instance in the list where his express thoughts about the relationship, versus "signs" like being offered coffee or a remote, count for something. I guess number 3 is him calling you his "girlfriend," but otherwise nothing else he says is considered a watershed moment in the relationship.

*****

* It appears the Women's Health doesn't have any advice for gay or bi women; or at least assume they don't read their magazine.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

October 25, 2002

October 25 is the anniversary of the death of Senate Paul Wellstone. Wellstone, his wife and daughter, supporters, and two pilots died in a plane crash in northern Minnesota ten days before the 2002 election day.

I was working for an advocacy organization working to get the pro-choice vote out in order to get Paul Wellstone reelected. The loss of a great advocate and the loss of the election were double blows that crushed the spirit of the progressive community in Minnesota. It is still recovering.

I had met Paul Wellstone on a couple of occasions. I had lobbied him to do more on the crushing Iraq sanctions. I met his daughter, Marcia, a couple weeks earlier when she came to a rally we held to underscore the importance of the Senate race for the balance of the Supreme Court.

On the day of the plane crash, I was to join a bunch of activists to ride on the campaign green bus from St. Paul to Duluth, to watch the U.S. Senate debate that evening. Before leaving the office, we heard that the campaign's plane was missing. We stopped and waited. A little while later, Minnesota Public Radio confirmed that the plane had crashed and everyone aboard had died.

We didn't just lose a Senate seat. We didn't just lose a great Senator. We lost one of the great leaders of the progressive movement. Wellstone had been in the Senate for two terms, but was just starting to find ways (and seniority) to make a difference. He was much further to the left than most voters in Minnesota, but people respected him tremendously. This short, feisty, screaming, Jewish, college professor originally from North Carolina stood out like a sore thumb in Minnesota, a state that is reflected more accurately by Garrison Keillor than the reserved natives would care to admit.

Wellstone's vote against the Iraq war resolution shortly before his death was the bravest act of his political career. George Bush started 2002 with a 85% approval rating. Those were the days that just about everyone in the political and media establishment agreed that Iraq constituted a grave threat. Bill Clinton was for it. Al Franken was for it. Even Dan Savage was for it.

Not Paul Wellstone. His vote was seen as political suicide by Beltway pundits. Of course they were wrong. His standing in the polls were not hurt by his vote. Minnesotans respected his convictions deeply, even though many of them disagreed with his vote on the most pressing issue of the day.

So many stories abound about how Paul Wellstone touched individuals. I remember talking to the cashier at the grocery store. She told me about working at the airport and seeing Paul Wellstone on his frequent trips between DC and the Twin Cities--usually outside baggage claim where she was taking a cigarette break. He would always say hi to her and gently chastise her for smoking. One day, he stepped it up and flat out told her she needed to quit. A few weeks later, she quit smoking and gave him the credit for making her do it.

Today Salon's Thomas Shaller wrote: "If Al Franken holds on to beat Norm Coleman to retake the seat Wellstone once held, Franken has some rather big shoes to fill."

But for better or for worse, in the minds of progressives in Minnesota, no person will ever be truly worthy of Paul Wellstone's seat. While I may very well vote for Al Franken, I know he is no Paul Wellstone. While Paul Wellstone convinced airport workers to quit smoking, Al Franken is known for not tipping airport cabbies. While Paul Wellstone lived his convictions regardless of the potential political consequences, Al Franken is running a centrist, DLC, play-it-safe campaign. So in my mind, Al Franken could never be anything like Paul Wellstone, neither could any other living person.

Certainly, Franken or the third party candidate Dean Barkley, would make immeasurable improvements and no longer constitute the stain on Wellstone's seat that is Norm Coleman. Coleman was elected in a wave of anti-Democratic sentiment after Republicans milked the "controversy" of Wellstone's "funeral-slash-rally" for all that it was worth. In a show of how classy he is, Coleman told the Roll Call newspaper six months after Wellstone's death that "To be very blunt and God watch over Paul's soul, I am a 99 percent improvement over Paul Wellstone. Just about on every issue."

If you talk to a progressive from Minnesota about October 25, 2002, you will hear how those deep wounds persist to this day. While Barack Obama is no Paul Wellstone, an Obama victory and the punting of Norm Coleman from Wellstone's seat would be two ever-sweet victories. It would make us feel that we were living up to Wellstone's legacy at least in part.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Aren't I smart?

Last August, before John McCain picked Sarah Palin, and right before we learned Barack Obama picked Joe Biden, I made a back-of-the-envelope electoral college prediction.  In the following weeks I've watched states change back and forth at pollster.com and felt mighty stupid--especially with my prediction that Montana would go to Obama.  But now let's compare my prediction two months ago with pollster.com's map two weeks out:





If all the states that Pollster.com rates as toss-up break to McCain as he throws the last minute Ayers and Wright dirt at Obama, except for the enlightened people of Montanta, I'll have predicted each state's vote perfectly. If the good people of Omaha, Nebraska and suburbs vote for Obama, that additional electoral vote will match with my crazy prediction of Obama winning with 290.

Sure, sure, a lot can change in the next two weeks and we don't know how the toss-up states will break. I'm just saying I don't look as crazy as I thought I looked myself a short time ago.

Post script: Let me be clear, in any case I'd much prefer a wider margin Obama win. My ego could take being drastically wrong.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Congresswoman calls Barack, Michelle, others, anti-American

Can anyone say, Joe McCarthy?

After she was on, Matthews asks Pat Buchanan his thoughts and whether any members of Congress were "anti-American." He doesn't think so. When you're way out further than Pat Buchanan, you're pretty crazy! Minnesotans have been waiting for Rep. Michele Bachmann to make an embarrassment of herself since she was elected in 2006. She gets into the anti-American accusation after the three minute point.



She also attacks Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, college professors, students, and leftists, and their friends.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

New blog: McCain Hand Quotes

McCain Hand Quotes
Check out McCain Hand Quotes to see how John McCain really thinks!


Inspired by McCain's "Quote HEALTH":

You tell me

Frankenstein & Bride of Frankenstein
OR
Robot McCains
destroy New York City?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Tiebreaker? Obama tries to snag Omaha

For most of us regardless of political persuasion, I present a nightmare scenario:

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

An electoral college tie, in which case (as long as there are no faithless electors) the House of Representatives will decide who fills the White House in 2009. We have not seen this situation since the Adams-Jefferson contest in 1800.

Yeah, yeah, I know this is unlikely. If you believe Pollster and other sources, Obama will comfortably win next month. But a tie is within the realm of the possible.

Let's suppose McCain and Obama win the states as shown above. You could have a situation where an electoral vote is pealed off in Maine or Nebraska, the two states that don't award all their electoral votes carte blanch. The Obama campaign has evidently put some resources in Omaha, home of the second congressional district. If Obama won the majority of the vote in Nebraska's 2nd, he'd get one more electoral vote and win 270 to McCain's 268. Nebraska awards 2 of its electoral votes to the statewide winner and 1 each for the winner of its 3 congressional districts.

Is that at all likely to happen? Short answer: Maybe. Omaha is more Democratic than the rest of the state, but this is still Nebraska after all.

In both 2004 and 2000, Douglas County (which contains 4 out of 5 voters in the district) voted for Bush by 18% and 16% respectively. Of course, compare that to the state as a whole, which voted for Bush by 30% and 34% margins respectively. The other part of the 2nd, with 20% of the voters, is a slice of Sarpy County. This part of the 2nd is more Republican and closely mirrors the rest of the state's voting.

For their part, the Obama campaign is being clear they're making an effort. They've opened an office in Omaha. Just today, the campaign snagged the endorsement of Lilibet Hagel, wife of the very popular and renegade Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. (Sen. Hagel, a former friend of McCain, has declined to endorse anyone.)

The Republicans aren't taking this lying down. Recently, Gov. Palin herself did a campaign stop in Omaha.

Can the Obama campaign pick up a third of the districts voters who supported George W. Bush and win the district?

No public polling has looked at the district, but a handful of statewide polls have come out. McCain is unsurprisingly in a comfortable lead by a 19% margin in the most recent poll. Using the statewide result as a starting point and assuming that the 2nd district will vote a fixed amount more Democratic, we can estimate some possible scenarios.

SCENARIO 1: Current Pollster statewide margin for McCain +22.3
This scenario assumes that the strong Obama organizing machine will increase turnout a bit more in the almost Democratic Douglas County than Repbulican stronghold of Sarpy (10% versus 7.5%). It assumes that Sarpy votes the same way as the state and Douglas votes with a margin of 15% towards the Dems (a change of 7.5% for each candidate). Using Pollster's most recent calculation McCain wins the state and the 2nd district comfortably (in red).

SCENARIO 2: Obama's best showing in the polls (way back in February!); statewide margin for McCain +3.0
Same assumptions as the first scenario. In this unlikely electoral shocker, McCain squeaks out a win statewide, but Obama grabs a hold of the 2nd by a 9 point margin. If this is the way it turns out on election day, we wouldn't be facing an electoral tie, but an unprecedented nationwide landslide. If Obama could get within 3 points of McCain in Nebraska, he's winning a lot more states overall.

SCENARIO 3: Election decided by less than one vote per 2nd district precinct; statewide margin for McCain +12.2
Could we have a national election won by a thinner margin than the several hundred (that were counted) in Florida in 2000? Here we have a situation where Obama takes the White House thanks to 122 voters that decided to turn out and vote for him in Omaha, Nebraska. Unlikely, sure, but possible. Only in America...

*****

Now, of course, the campaigns have much more sophisticated tools for analysis than this. The Obama campaign is probably counting on a bigger turnout of their voters, though one shouldn't automatically assume that the Republican voters won't turn out in force.

What we have is a rough sketch of at what point Omaha becomes truly in play. Current polling suggests that it is still out of reach for Obama, but not necessarily a fools errand. If statewide polling for Nebraska shows it to be a 10-15% margin instead of the more recent 20% plus margin, pay attention, and start figuring out if you know anyone in Omaha who needs a voter pep talk before next month.