On the Republican side, McCain will be making a careful choice. He must get a running mate who will placate the social conservatives, but not scare off everyone else. (That's why Senators Brownback and Coburn are unlikely.)
First, I'll dispense with the usually suspects:
Former Governor Mike Huckabee (Arkansas): Huckabee would be better positioned if he had dropped out earlier, but still is a possibility. His occasional habit of not being an iron clad economic conservative could be a sticking point, especially because even McCain acknowledges that is not his strong point either.
Former Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts): Definitely has a strong conservative economics credentials. Although he was a moderate-to-liberal on social issues in a past life, he was somewhat effective in assuring social conservatives he was "born again" in the metaphorical sense at least.
Governor Charlie Crist (Florida): Is likable and from an important state. Some rumors about his sexuality are floating out there. Setting that aside, he has the metrosexual look, which maybe a problem for Republican voters. (Yes, I used that term which I despise: metrosexual.) It's an open question how the social conservatives would receive him.
Governor Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota): Pawlenty has several things going for him: he's young, is a true social conservative, he's from a state that could be made competitive (although it only has 10 electoral votes). On the negative side, he's not as popular in Minnesota as the national press made him out to be. He won the first time by a slim margin in a three-way race and won reelection by a mere 1 percent against an angry baffoon. Still, popularity in the state may matter little. It's the overall resume.
Governor Mark Sanford (South Carolina): I don't know much about Sanford. He looks like a bona fide conservative, although like McCain, he occasional rankles some of his allies. Geographically, he would have little to offer.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: Rice is liked by a lot of conservatives, but her spot on the ticket would underscore the horrible judgment that got us into the Iraq War. Plus, social conservatives are suspicious of her position on reproductive rights. If McCain somehow thought the election would ONLY by on national security, not the economy or any burning social issues, AND that voters would have a different mindset on the wisdom behind the Iraq War, she'd be a good choice.
Other possibilities:
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (Texas): Hutchinson has generally run as a moderate Texan Republican and her votes on social issues has been of the moderate to conservative part of the spectrum. She may or may not be good enough to social conservatives. She is a decent campaigner and fairly likable. Her presence on the ticket may make it safe for many centrist voters to go with McCain even while they are nervous about his temper and hawkish ways.
Senator Joe Lieberman (Connecticut): The selection of Lieberman would encompass a whole different strategy. McCain would be betting that he could make up enough additional centrist votes to account for the loss in social conservatives who'd stay at home. If Clinton and Obama slug it out enough and fracture the Democrat party, Lieberman may entail a certain amount of logic for McCain.
Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska): Palin is a reform-minded conservative who has been mentioned as a long-shot. Last week, she told constituents she is pregnant and will have her fifth child in May. Even though she has a record of returning to work after giving birth, that might put a damper on her long-shot chances.
Governor Matt Blunt (Missouri): The 38 year-old governor is a recent veteran and a bona fide, bona fide social conservative. He'd placate social conservatives, but is probably too conservative for centrist voters. Plus, his short tenure as governor hasn't been a raging success.
Former Senator Zell Miller (Georgia): The then Democrat Senator Miller came out to support George W. Bush's reelection and spoke at the Republican National Convention. His name has come up here and there as a potential McCain running mate. But he's old and doesn't bring much. The only advantage is that by comparison, McCain would seem like a gentle, emotionally stable guy.
We're still a few months off and who knows what will happen. First and foremost, what the Democrats end up doing over the next few months will probably impact McCain's calculations.
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