Who can beat McCain?

MORE PREDICTIONS! Yes! So, the debate is now who can better beat John McCain, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? The Republicans appear to be doing what I didn't think they could do this year: choose the most electable candidate. Despite this, I'm going with conventional wisdom and saying the Democrats still go into this election with an advantage. That being said, it's no done deal. This will likely be a competitive election.

I've never been of the camp that holds Clinton is not electable or that the Democrats shouldn't nominate her because of her electability. I do, however, believe Obama is more likely to prevail against McCain. That just adds to the many reasons I voted for him on Super Tuesday.

A few head-to-head polls show Obama doing better against McCain. That is part of the picture, but we should go straight to the Electoral College to investigate true competitiveness.

Below I've made my own assessment of the competitiveness of each state in the two match-ups. In both, Clinton and Obama are likely to prevail in the same states. Obama's advantage, in part because he isn't as devisive of a candidate as Clinton, is where he can make traditionally Republican leaning states competitive.

The winner needs 270 electoral votes to win. Both Democrats start with an advantage. But Obama is going to be able to go after some additional states. Just by picking up one or two of these Republican leaning states he can increase his margin substantially. What's more, this will allow the financially-advantaged Obama to make McCain spread his resources wider as he will have to shore up states like North Carolina and Virginia.

Some of my designations would probably spark some disagreement, which is fair. This is all highly speculative. My main point is that Obama is competitive in more states than Clinton in a match-up with McCain. I think it is difficult to assert the opposite.

STATE	Electoral College Votes	MCCAIN V. CLINTON PREDICTION		MCCAIN V. OBAMA PREDICTION
California	55	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Connecticut	7	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
DC	3	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Delaware	3	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Hawaii	4	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Illinois	21	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Massachusetts	12	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
New York	31	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Rhode Island	4	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Vermont	3	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Washington	11	SOLID CLINTON		SOLID OBAMA
Iowa	7	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Maine	4	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Maryland	10	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Michigan	17	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Minnesota	10	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
New Jersey	15	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Oregon	7	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Pennsylvania	21	LEAN CLINTON		LEAN OBAMA
Colorado	9	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Florida	27	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Missouri	11	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Nevada	5	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
New Hampshire	4	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
New Mexico	5	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Ohio	20	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Tennessee	11	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
West Virginia	5	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Wisconsin	10	TOSS-UP		TOSS-UP
Arkansas	6	TOSS-UP		LEAN MCCAIN
Kansas	6	LEAN MCCAIN		TOSS-UP
North Carolina	15	LEAN MCCAIN		TOSS-UP
Alaska	3	LEAN MCCAIN		LEAN MCCAIN
Montana	3	LEAN MCCAIN		LEAN MCCAIN
Georgia	15	SOLID MCCAIN		LEAN MCCAIN
Louisiana	9	SOLID MCCAIN		LEAN MCCAIN
Virginia	13	SOLID MCCAIN		LEAN MCCAIN
Alabama	9	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Arizona	10	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Idaho	4	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Indiana	11	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Kentucky	8	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Mississippi	6	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Nebraska	5	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
North Dakota	3	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Oklahoma	7	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
South Carolina	8	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
South Dakota	3	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Texas	34	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Utah	5	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN
Wyoming	3	SOLID MCCAIN		SOLID MCCAIN

CLINTON v. MCCAIN

SOLID CLINTON: 154	ALL CLINTON: 245
LEAN CLINTON: 91
TOSS-UP: 113	TOSS-UP: 113
LEAN MCCAIN: 27	ALL MCCAIN: 180
SOLID MCCAIN: 153

OBAMA v. MCCAIN

SOLID OBAMA: 154	ALL OBAMA: 245
LEAN OBAMA: 91
TOSS-UP: 128	TOSS-UP: 128
LEAN MCCAIN: 49	ALL MCCAIN: 175
SOLID MCCAIN: 116