To start, The Fix lists former North Carolina Senator and presidential hopeful John Edwards, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, retired general and head of the U.S. Central Command, Tony Zinni.
I agree that Kaine, Sebelius, and Zinni would be good bets for the short list, but I would be surprised with Edwards or Webb. First, they are both from the Senate and aren't long in the experience realm. In 2000, George W. Bush "assured" voters with the implication that he surrounded himself with experienced experts from his dad's administration, so we wouldn't have to worry about him not knowing who the prime minister of Canada or Pakistan was. Second, they wouldn't do much to deliver either of their states (Virginia or North Carolina). I do think Obama can be competitive in both states in the fall, but neither of those two men do a lot to improve his odds. Gov. Kaine, however, is more highly respected in and out of Virginia and could give a boost.
Obama is not going to offer a second spot to Clinton and she wouldn't take it either. It wouldn't be smart politics. Obama needs a vice president that underscores what his candidacy is about in the general election and maybe shore him up in some way. Geography is clearly a component, but not of the utmost importance. The last running mate who probably made a difference in winning their home state would be Carter's running mate Mondale. One could argue Gore helped Clinton in the south. Though Clinton himself is probably primarily responsible for winning southern states.
Obama needs a running mate with serious foreign policy credentials or someone with leadership experience on important domestic issues. Sebelius and Kaine would fit in the latter manner, with the added benefit of making their small and medium-sized states competitive. Zinni of course helps in the former way. (Where is Zinni from, Virginia?)
I'd also add the following names:
- Bill Richardson - Is a double-whammy of foreign policy cred and a governor working on healthcare and economic solutions. He is both an insider and outsider at the same time and would probably help make New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe even Nevada competitive
- Jim Doyle - As the second-term governor of Wisconsin, Doyle is a respected centrist who could help shore up the Midwest possibly.
- Janet Napolitano - The Arizona governor is a tough-as-nails, centrist westerner. If the Republican nominee was not John McCain, I would put her at the top of the VP list. As it is, she was unable to deliver Arizona to Obama in the primary and is less likely to be able to deliver the state in an Obama-McCain contest.
- Tom Daschle - The former senate minority/majority leader has been an early and close adviser to Obama. He is respected, experienced, a centrist, and his quiet manner means he would not outshine Obama. He might not deliver his home state of South Dakota, but may help in western and plains states.
- Ed Rendell - The Pennsylvania governor is a Clinton supporter. Still, he is a two term centrist governor from an important electoral state. If Obama wants to try to patch things up with the Clinonites, Rendell might be a good pick.
- Joe Biden - Strong on foreign policy and a good campaigner. On the other hand, he is a senator, a Washington insider, and someone who wouldn't bring additional states to the table.
- Eliot Spitzer - The New York Governor is a Clinton supporter, but he is another tough centrist who has prosecuted all sorts of bad guys: white collar criminals, drug traffickers, human traffickers, violent criminals, and terrorists. He'll probably run for president himself in 4 or 8 years.
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