Super Tuesday!

The day is here! Super Tuesday! It's like a holiday. Made even more exciting is the fact that no one knows what's going to happen.

I'm going with the conventional wisdom and say that we're not going to have any candidates drop out tomorrow. On the Republican side, McCain will likely do very well, but I think Romney will do well enough to be in it. The Republican who wins California will probably win the nomination and that looks like John McCain right now. Huckabee will draw his standard 10-20% in each state and will stay around a bit longer despite his very long odds. I doubt Ron Paul will break 10% in any state.

Clinton and Obama will both do well enough to keep on going. The main question is who will end the day with more delegates. The momentum will go to the candidate who has the most delegates.

I suspect that neither contest will go to the respective convention. Neither Clinton nor Obama will want to wait that long and would come to some sort of agreement, even if they have enough delegates to contest it. That being said, I see no advantage to the Democrats in having a known nominee before the Republicans. A known Democratic nominee only helps John McCain, especially if the Democrat is Clinton. Even if Romney does well enough to stay in the race after today, he faces an uphill battle in the remaining states and will have to drop out within a few weeks. Who knows what Huckabee will do, but I don't think he'll be a factor in the primaries after Super Tuesday.

The next question will be, will Mike Bloomberg enter the race? And if so, when? If the Republican nominee looked to be Huckabee, I think Bloomberg would have a chance with an independent run. But if the nominees of the two parties are centrists, which is how Clinton, Obama, and McCain are presenting themselves in a general election, why would Bloomberg get much support? Maybe if it looks like Super Tuesday will solve nothing in either party and that there will be a slugfest to the conventions, that would entice him. But at this juncture I think it is unlikely.