Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Waiting for Clinton

On March 3rd, I predicted the imminent end of the Clinton campaign. I asserted that "at the very latest" Clinton could hold out long enough for a unlikely win in Pennsylvania.

Shows what I know.

Still, after yesterday's results in Indiana and North Carolina, it's hard to see how Clinton could stay in. Clinton has begun to argue more forcefully for the inclusion of Michigan and Florida delegates from their unauthorized primaries. Looking at the Slate's Delegate Calculator, even with the inclusion of Florida, Clinton would have to have substantial wins in the remaining primaries and pick-up a bunch more superdelegates than Obama.

Members of the media have essentially declared her candidacy over. One doesn't want to put too much stock into what Tim Russert says, but in this case he might be right.

I say even odds, Clinton will be out by the end of the week. If she doesn't withdraw by next Monday, I don't know what the heck to expect. Most likely scenario is that we'll get an announcement late Wednesday or on Thursday.

Slate also doesn't have a lot of faith in Clinton's ability to pull anything off:

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