Sometimes you have to go for broke

I'll first start with the acknowledgment that one should be careful to not put too much stock into poll results, especially 6 months before an election. Even so, Al Franken's continuing lag behind Norm Coleman should give DFL delegates pause before endorsing him. Consider today's Star Tribune poll. You can see the overall trend from all public polls at Pollster's Minnesota Senate page.

Why should we think these polls should have bearing on this fall?

Usually, six months before the election you have people largely undecided and not really paying attention to the election. Many people who will end of voting don't even know the names the candidates. This year we have a very attentive electorate, both for the presidential and congressional races. Minnesotan voters generally pay attention to campaigns more closely. Lastly, a very high number of voters know who Norm Coleman and Al Franken are, and have probably made up their minds about both candidates. Voters will be swayed in different directions between now and November, but I suspect the number of persuadable voters is narrower than usual in this match-up.

I don't think Franken's tax troubles will blow over too much. Two years ago Keith Ellison was battling his problems on parking tickets and campaign finance reports up to election day despite the news coming out months earlier. (Yes, Ellison did win the overwhelmingly Democratic seat, but it did damage him at the polls.) Franken's tax problems are more serious and will be used by 527 groups and party committees to run television and radio ads throughout the campaign.

This is not to say Franken can't beat Coleman, but it is an uphill battle. This should be a good year for Democrats nationwide, but Minnesotans are a contrary bunch. When Democrats swept the nation in 2006, Pawlenty was elected in Minnesota. Two years after Rod Grams won the Senate seat in Minnesota, Paul Wellstone won reelection for his seat. Meaning: Thousands of Minnesota voters voted for Wellstone and Grams, just two years apart. Those two men were very different politically. It is quite possible, and perhaps most likely, to have Minnesota go strongly to Obama in the presidential race, but reelect Coleman by a comfortable margin.

If I were a delegate to the DFL convention, right now I'd be considering if there is a candidate that could do better than Al Franken against Coleman. I'd want to think creatively. Here are some people I'd consider:

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: The only other candidate in the race now and going for the endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer is behind Coleman in the polls even more than Franken, 15 points, but he is not yet the well-known figure that Franken is. Delegates need to keep in mind that anyone who gets the endorsement will get lots of media coverage and that voters over the summer will start to pay attention. If it isn't someone they don't already know, many voters will approach the candidate with an open mind. Nelson-Pallmeyer is a good campaigner. While he is a liberal (or progressive), he has sincerely held positions that match up well with voters. Nelson-Pallmeyer can claim he is of the Paul Wellstone mold more than just about any other candidate or likely candidate. (Even some of the people who voted for Coleman last time around have positive views on the late Senator.)

Mike Ciresi: Has dropped out of the race, but is almost as close to Coleman as Franken. Ciresi is not as well-known as Franken obviously, but he has run for statewide office before (unsuccessfully). It is hard to see him impressing a majority of voters. He's not an inspiring campaigner, he has yet to show he can put together a decent campaign, and he comes off as too politicky. (He panders a lot.)

Rebecca Otto: The current state auditor is one of the DFLers who has recently successfully won a statewide election. As a current elected official and someone who was on the ballot two years before, voters are somewhat familiar with her,. But she's the state auditor, i.e. Otto is a fresh face. Otto is a good campaigner. She knows how to talk to middle-of-the-road voters. She has a lot of energy. Her burgeoning political career has been built on focus on responsible and competent government. It's not sexy, but it is a way to sway some important swing voters this year.

Mark Ritchie: The current secretary of state also was a successful DFL statewide candidate two years ago. He had the small scandal involving appropriating a public list in sloppy way, but I don't think that will hurt him too much. The biggest mark against Ritchie (and Nelson-Pallmeyer) is that he lives in Minneapolis.

R.T. Rybak: Talk arises now and then of Rybak seeking higher office. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested. Rybak is a dynamic person and would run an energetic, and well-funded, campaign. If Ritchie and Nelson-Pallmeyer's problems are they are from Minneapolis, the mayor of Minneapolis would run into some problems with both suburban and rural voters.

All these candidates are a bit more of an unknown than Al Franken when it comes to their prospects for the general election. But when things aren't looking very good for the leading candidate, perhaps the answer is to shake things up and go for broke? Somehow Paul Wellstone got elected by Minnesotans twice. (And I believe he would have won in 2002 had he lived.) You don't need a Wellstone clone. You do need to consider that going with a lesser-known, obvious under-dog is not necessarily giving up. It might be the better way to go. You also need to consider that you don't need to be a centrist to win in Minnesota.

If I were to bet money, at this point I'd guess Franken is probably going to lose to Coleman by about the 7 points he is currently behind in the polls. If the candidate were Nelson-Pallmeyer, Otto, or one of the others, I don't know what I'd predict. It could be a 15 point win--in either direction. Not super encouraging, but better than a most likely loss.

Question to readers: If the DFL candidate isn't Al Franken, who do you think it should be? Why?