Aren't I smart?

Last August, before John McCain picked Sarah Palin, and right before we learned Barack Obama picked Joe Biden, I made a back-of-the-envelope electoral college prediction.  In the following weeks I've watched states change back and forth at pollster.com and felt mighty stupid--especially with my prediction that Montana would go to Obama.  But now let's compare my prediction two months ago with pollster.com's map two weeks out:

If all the states that Pollster.com rates as toss-up break to McCain as he throws the last minute Ayers and Wright dirt at Obama, except for the enlightened people of Montanta, I'll have predicted each state's vote perfectly. If the good people of Omaha, Nebraska and suburbs vote for Obama, that additional electoral vote will match with my crazy prediction of Obama winning with 290.

Sure, sure, a lot can change in the next two weeks and we don't know how the toss-up states will break. I'm just saying I don't look as crazy as I thought I looked myself a short time ago.

Post script: Let me be clear, in any case I'd much prefer a wider margin Obama win. My ego could take being drastically wrong.