Monday, April 28, 2008

McCain/Obama/Clinton administrations: Minnesota personnel

We've talked about the running mate odds already. Let's get even more ahead of ourselves and discuss which Minnesota politicians may be snatched to serve in the next administration.

First off, in the unlikely, but unfortunately possible, scenario of a McCain presidency. A lot of high profile current and former Republicans are off the table because they lack experience or have been discredited. It's difficult to see Michele Bachmann or Rod Grams serving in an administration.
  • Tim Pawlenty - Conventional wisdom continues to build that Pawlenty is at the top of McCain's running mate list. If the governor does not become McCain's running mate, don't count a Governor Molnau out. Pawlenty could be a cabinet member; particularly but not necessarily the Secretary of Health and Human Services or Secretary of Education.
  • Jim Ramstad - I don't know how Ramstad and McCain regard each other, but both have a reputation of bucking the party line in Congress. McCain, while a "maverick," is still a by-and-large conservative. Ramstad is a true moderate, particularly on social issues. Ramstad is retiring from Congress. His appointment wouldn't put a Republican seat in danger (it already is). Ramstad might not be a cabinet level appointment, but still in line for some administration job. Ramstad could serve the administration in a health care capacity or perhaps law enforcement.
  • John Kline - Kline may or may not be out of a job come January. The Republican congressman has been a steadfast supporter of the war and is a consistent conservative. Whether or not he is reelected this fall, Kline could be a pick to serve as a higher-up in the Department of Veterans Affairs or perhaps in the Pentagon.
  • Norm Coleman - Should Coleman lose election this fall, but McCain wins (an unlikely combination), he might be able to get employed in some capacity in a McCain administration. Perhaps with his 5 years working on foreign relations in the Senate, Coleman could be appointed an ambassador. Perhaps ambassador to the UN, but McCain would probably want someone with more experience and intelligence in that position. If Coleman wins in the fall, he's probably not an attractive enough person to vacate a Senate seat, even if a Republican would be appointed to replace him by a Governor Pawlenty or Molnau.
(Here's a scary scenario. Remember that once upon a time Pawlenty wanted the U.S. Senate seat before Dick Cheney "persuaded" him to run for governor. Should McCain win the presidency with Charlie Crist as his running mate and Coleman win reelection too, but vacate the post when appointed the ambassador to the EU or something. Pawlenty could then resign and Gov. Molnau appoint Pawlenty to serve out the six year Senate term. It's been done before, albeit without good results. Setting that aside, who would a Gov. Pawlenty or Molnau appoint to fill an empty Coleman seat?)


An Obama presidency:

Minnesota Democrats hold more congressional and statewide seats than Republicans, but most are relative newcomers. However, some DFL politicians stick out for an opening in an Obama administration.

  • Jim Oberstar - It would be hard for Oberstar to give up his chair of the House Transportation Committee. It looks like he has just gotten started there. That is, except for maybe the possibility to become the Secretary of Transportation. The resulting special election would be competitive, but Democrats would still probably be able to keep that northern Minnesota seat.
  • Lori Swanson - Swanson has been tarnished in recent months with allegations of ethical breaches and union busting. At this point, the charges probably don't rise to the level to stop Swanson from being appointed a federal judge. State Democrats would probably be resistant to the idea, since the governor would have the power to appoint a successor for the attorney general.
  • R.T. Rybak - The Minneapolis mayor was an early and strong supporter of Obama's. It is not too far fetched to see Rybak serving in the Department of Housing and Urban Affairs.
  • Betty McCollum - McCollum's departure wouldn't worry Democrats too much. McCollum has been steadily climbing the Democratic caucus leadership ladder since elected in 2000. She may not wish to throw that away. Still, McCollum might be an attractive fit in a number of administration posts within the Department of Health and Human Services or the Department of Education. McCollum might also be the type of person appointed to the National Endowment for the Arts.

A Clinton administration:

It is doubtful, although an outside possibility that Clinton will be elected the next president. In that scenario one can assume many of the first Clinton administration loyalists would return. Clinton would undoubtedly bring in some new blood out of need and a desire to make her own mark.

Under a Clinton administration, Oberstar, Swanson, and McCollum may all still be potential candidates for appointments despite Oberstar's and McCollum's endorsements of Obama. Rybak would be out of consideration in all likelihood. Two additional names:

  • Chris Coleman and Susan Gaertner - The St. Paul Mayor and the Ramsey County Attorney, respectively, have both endorsed Clinton. Coleman has also served as a public defender and prosecutor in Hennepin County. Both are top names for a gubernatorial run in 2010, but one or even both could be persuaded to take a post in Washington, DC. Either could be good fits for a Department of Justice or federal judiciary post.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hopefully John Kline has nothing to do with veteran's affairs.

He's received a 0% rating from Disabled American Veterans and had nothing to say when President Bush sent our troops into harms way without the necessary body armor and protection.

Derek said...

In the best case scenario, John Kline and John McCain will lose in November and Kline will get a new career as an ineffectual but overpaid lobbyist.

Kline has a horrible record with veterans even though he is one himself. McCain putting him at the Department of Veterans Affairs though would be consistent with the Bush administration's treatment of vets.

It seems often that loyal incumbents that get kicked out of office get rewarded with administrative gigs with even more power if their party is in the White House. I remember the extreme disappointment to learn that Senate loser John Ashcroft had become Bush's pick for AG.