The little things

I'm getting a little tired writing about the politics of the presidential contest, but I can't seem to help myself. Right now, I'm going to go halfway and use a political story to make a non-political point.

The Washington Post today ran a piece about former candidate Bill Richardson's struggle on whether to endorse Clinton or Obama (presumably not Edwards by his omission in the piece). Richardson is under a lot of pressure from all sides to commit. He likes Clinton and feels loyalty towards her. He then tells the reporter one of the reasons he likes Obama, stemming from an experience at a Democratic debate last year:

"I had just been asked a question -- I don't remember which one -- and Obama was sitting right next to me. Then the moderator went across the room, I think to Chris Dodd, so I thought I was home free for a while. I wasn't going to listen to the next question. I was about to say something to Obama when the moderator turned to me and said, 'So, Gov. Richardson, what do you think of that?' But I wasn't paying any attention! I was about to say, 'Could you repeat the question? I wasn't listening.' But I wasn't about to say I wasn't listening. I looked at Obama. I was just horrified. And Obama whispered, 'Katrina. Katrina.' The question was on Katrina! So I said, 'On Katrina, my policy . . .' Obama could have just thrown me under the bus. So I said, 'Obama, that was good of you to do that.'"

I'm not going to claim that this says anything specifically noteworthy about Barack Obama. I'm sure most the other presidential candidates have also said and done nice things in the past, even to political rivals. (Well, maybe not Rudy Giuliani.) What's noteworthy is how a little gesture can make such an impact.

We never truly know how and when the little things will matter. Of all the interactions we have every day, which one is going to carry us forward? Stories like this serve as a reminder to be on one's best behavior in all circumstances and with all people. You never know when a good deed will pay back or when a misdeed will bite you back. Some may call that karma. I think it's just common sense.

Although it might have felt like a big deal at the time, asking the moderator to repeat the question wasn't going to seal the fate of Richardson's campaign. Maybe Obama was thinking ahead when he gave a helping hand to Richardson or maybe it was automatic. In any case, now Richardson is in the position to have an impact with an endorsement and this little gesture may make a difference.

More Presidential Primaries Predictions

Okay, so it was several days ago, but I must admit that I was a bit off in my predictions of the Iowa caucus results. At least on the Democratic side. As we know, Clinton did NOT win by a double-digit margin but came in a close third place. So, I got it backwards. On the GOP side, I was right about Huckabee, but that was no real surprise.

Still, I'm going to barrel ahead and make predictions for tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire. I've only heard a little of the polls and some of the coverage. That won't stop my half-informed self from prognosticating though.

As the cable news channels tell us, the key in New Hampshire is the independent voters who can vote in either primary. (It's an open primary state.) I saw one poll last week that claimed that 60% of independents would vote in the Dem primary. If true, that should help Obama and harm the "moderate" Republicans.

Here it goes!

Democrats
Obama will win New Hampshire by at least 5 points. Edwards will be lucky to break 10%. Edwards will probably not drop out of the race yet. Richardson will have to withdraw after New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see who Richardson or Edwards will endorse, if anybody, after they withdraw. And no, I'm not going to even bother talking about Dennis Kucinich.

Republicans
Who the heck knows? It's all in flux. Either Romney or McCain will win. Whichever one wins here becomes the Republican front-runner in a three way race with Huckabee and Giuliani. McCain won the primary in 2000 with the help of lots of independent voters. Unfortunately, many of those independents will be voting Democrat, or could be pairing off to support Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul. Still, I'll predict McCain will win New Hampshire narrowly over Romney. Romney will stay in the race but his time is about done. Giuliani needs to come in 3rd or a narrow 4th to look competitive going into other states. My guess is that Giuliani, Paul, and Huckabee will be clustered around 10 percent each and Thompson will be less. One hopes that Thompson will end the charade and drop out after New Hampshire.

Another item on the horizon is whether high-profile independent Michael Bloomberg jumps in the race. If the Republican nominee appears to be Huckabee, I think that gives Bloomberg a great opportunity. If it is Giuliani or McCain, that is less possible. If he does enter, I think it could be as early as Monday, February 11th: one week after Super Tuesday. I remain doubtful that Bloomberg candidacy would amount to anything more than a spoiler candidate.