October 25, 2002

October 25 is the anniversary of the death of Senate Paul Wellstone. Wellstone, his wife and daughter, supporters, and two pilots died in a plane crash in northern Minnesota ten days before the 2002 election day.

I was working for an advocacy organization working to get the pro-choice vote out in order to get Paul Wellstone reelected. The loss of a great advocate and the loss of the election were double blows that crushed the spirit of the progressive community in Minnesota. It is still recovering.

I had met Paul Wellstone on a couple of occasions. I had lobbied him to do more on the crushing Iraq sanctions. I met his daughter, Marcia, a couple weeks earlier when she came to a rally we held to underscore the importance of the Senate race for the balance of the Supreme Court.

On the day of the plane crash, I was to join a bunch of activists to ride on the campaign green bus from St. Paul to Duluth, to watch the U.S. Senate debate that evening. Before leaving the office, we heard that the campaign's plane was missing. We stopped and waited. A little while later, Minnesota Public Radio confirmed that the plane had crashed and everyone aboard had died.

We didn't just lose a Senate seat. We didn't just lose a great Senator. We lost one of the great leaders of the progressive movement. Wellstone had been in the Senate for two terms, but was just starting to find ways (and seniority) to make a difference. He was much further to the left than most voters in Minnesota, but people respected him tremendously. This short, feisty, screaming, Jewish, college professor originally from North Carolina stood out like a sore thumb in Minnesota, a state that is reflected more accurately by Garrison Keillor than the reserved natives would care to admit.

Wellstone's vote against the Iraq war resolution shortly before his death was the bravest act of his political career. George Bush started 2002 with a 85% approval rating. Those were the days that just about everyone in the political and media establishment agreed that Iraq constituted a grave threat. Bill Clinton was for it. Al Franken was for it. Even Dan Savage was for it.

Not Paul Wellstone. His vote was seen as political suicide by Beltway pundits. Of course they were wrong. His standing in the polls were not hurt by his vote. Minnesotans respected his convictions deeply, even though many of them disagreed with his vote on the most pressing issue of the day.

So many stories abound about how Paul Wellstone touched individuals. I remember talking to the cashier at the grocery store. She told me about working at the airport and seeing Paul Wellstone on his frequent trips between DC and the Twin Cities--usually outside baggage claim where she was taking a cigarette break. He would always say hi to her and gently chastise her for smoking. One day, he stepped it up and flat out told her she needed to quit. A few weeks later, she quit smoking and gave him the credit for making her do it.

Today Salon's Thomas Shaller wrote: "If Al Franken holds on to beat Norm Coleman to retake the seat Wellstone once held, Franken has some rather big shoes to fill."

But for better or for worse, in the minds of progressives in Minnesota, no person will ever be truly worthy of Paul Wellstone's seat. While I may very well vote for Al Franken, I know he is no Paul Wellstone. While Paul Wellstone convinced airport workers to quit smoking, Al Franken is known for not tipping airport cabbies. While Paul Wellstone lived his convictions regardless of the potential political consequences, Al Franken is running a centrist, DLC, play-it-safe campaign. So in my mind, Al Franken could never be anything like Paul Wellstone, neither could any other living person.

Certainly, Franken or the third party candidate Dean Barkley, would make immeasurable improvements and no longer constitute the stain on Wellstone's seat that is Norm Coleman. Coleman was elected in a wave of anti-Democratic sentiment after Republicans milked the "controversy" of Wellstone's "funeral-slash-rally" for all that it was worth. In a show of how classy he is, Coleman told the Roll Call newspaper six months after Wellstone's death that "To be very blunt and God watch over Paul's soul, I am a 99 percent improvement over Paul Wellstone. Just about on every issue."

If you talk to a progressive from Minnesota about October 25, 2002, you will hear how those deep wounds persist to this day. While Barack Obama is no Paul Wellstone, an Obama victory and the punting of Norm Coleman from Wellstone's seat would be two ever-sweet victories. It would make us feel that we were living up to Wellstone's legacy at least in part.

Shady politics: Al Franken

Norm Coleman and the Republicans have been blasting Al Franken with negative ads.

Al Franken hasn't been shy about returning the fire. His latest ad:



The first part is a response to this Coleman ad attacking Franken for his tax and accounting troubles. Franken is smart to respond to these charges and not ignoring them. Ethical concerns are taken very seriously by voters. Is this an effective response? If the best you can say is, "It was an honest mistake," you're making a pretty weak case. Fair or not, phrases voters generally don't like to hear from politicians include, "it was an honest mistake."

Moving from defense mode to attack mode within the same ad is probably a good strategic move, especially when it is also on the issue of ethics. Senator Coleman lives in a mansion in DC practically given to him for a mere $600/month by his lobbyist-related friend? That sounds pretty bad.

At best, though, Franken is playing loose with the facts. While there are legitimate ethics issues with Coleman's rental arrangement that was first revealed by the National Journal in June, it isn't to the scale Franken describes. Coleman is living in a small basement studio apartment for $600. It's been a few years since I lived on Capitol Hill, but I remember lots of what are referred to as "English Basements" in the row houses on Capitol Hill. Usually they went for at least $900/month then. But living in a $600 basement apartment is a bit different from an entire "mansion."

I'm no fan of Norm Coleman. He's a slimy, unprincipled, political opportunist without a single ounce of integrity. Alas, Al Franken appears to be stooping to his level.

In fairness, here's another of Coleman's prominent nasty ads that's been covering the Minnesota airwaves for the last two weeks.

Sometimes you have to go for broke

I'll first start with the acknowledgment that one should be careful to not put too much stock into poll results, especially 6 months before an election. Even so, Al Franken's continuing lag behind Norm Coleman should give DFL delegates pause before endorsing him. Consider today's Star Tribune poll. You can see the overall trend from all public polls at Pollster's Minnesota Senate page.

Why should we think these polls should have bearing on this fall?

Usually, six months before the election you have people largely undecided and not really paying attention to the election. Many people who will end of voting don't even know the names the candidates. This year we have a very attentive electorate, both for the presidential and congressional races. Minnesotan voters generally pay attention to campaigns more closely. Lastly, a very high number of voters know who Norm Coleman and Al Franken are, and have probably made up their minds about both candidates. Voters will be swayed in different directions between now and November, but I suspect the number of persuadable voters is narrower than usual in this match-up.

I don't think Franken's tax troubles will blow over too much. Two years ago Keith Ellison was battling his problems on parking tickets and campaign finance reports up to election day despite the news coming out months earlier. (Yes, Ellison did win the overwhelmingly Democratic seat, but it did damage him at the polls.) Franken's tax problems are more serious and will be used by 527 groups and party committees to run television and radio ads throughout the campaign.

This is not to say Franken can't beat Coleman, but it is an uphill battle. This should be a good year for Democrats nationwide, but Minnesotans are a contrary bunch. When Democrats swept the nation in 2006, Pawlenty was elected in Minnesota. Two years after Rod Grams won the Senate seat in Minnesota, Paul Wellstone won reelection for his seat. Meaning: Thousands of Minnesota voters voted for Wellstone and Grams, just two years apart. Those two men were very different politically. It is quite possible, and perhaps most likely, to have Minnesota go strongly to Obama in the presidential race, but reelect Coleman by a comfortable margin.

If I were a delegate to the DFL convention, right now I'd be considering if there is a candidate that could do better than Al Franken against Coleman. I'd want to think creatively. Here are some people I'd consider:

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: The only other candidate in the race now and going for the endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer is behind Coleman in the polls even more than Franken, 15 points, but he is not yet the well-known figure that Franken is. Delegates need to keep in mind that anyone who gets the endorsement will get lots of media coverage and that voters over the summer will start to pay attention. If it isn't someone they don't already know, many voters will approach the candidate with an open mind. Nelson-Pallmeyer is a good campaigner. While he is a liberal (or progressive), he has sincerely held positions that match up well with voters. Nelson-Pallmeyer can claim he is of the Paul Wellstone mold more than just about any other candidate or likely candidate. (Even some of the people who voted for Coleman last time around have positive views on the late Senator.)

Mike Ciresi: Has dropped out of the race, but is almost as close to Coleman as Franken. Ciresi is not as well-known as Franken obviously, but he has run for statewide office before (unsuccessfully). It is hard to see him impressing a majority of voters. He's not an inspiring campaigner, he has yet to show he can put together a decent campaign, and he comes off as too politicky. (He panders a lot.)

Rebecca Otto: The current state auditor is one of the DFLers who has recently successfully won a statewide election. As a current elected official and someone who was on the ballot two years before, voters are somewhat familiar with her,. But she's the state auditor, i.e. Otto is a fresh face. Otto is a good campaigner. She knows how to talk to middle-of-the-road voters. She has a lot of energy. Her burgeoning political career has been built on focus on responsible and competent government. It's not sexy, but it is a way to sway some important swing voters this year.

Mark Ritchie: The current secretary of state also was a successful DFL statewide candidate two years ago. He had the small scandal involving appropriating a public list in sloppy way, but I don't think that will hurt him too much. The biggest mark against Ritchie (and Nelson-Pallmeyer) is that he lives in Minneapolis.

R.T. Rybak: Talk arises now and then of Rybak seeking higher office. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested. Rybak is a dynamic person and would run an energetic, and well-funded, campaign. If Ritchie and Nelson-Pallmeyer's problems are they are from Minneapolis, the mayor of Minneapolis would run into some problems with both suburban and rural voters.

All these candidates are a bit more of an unknown than Al Franken when it comes to their prospects for the general election. But when things aren't looking very good for the leading candidate, perhaps the answer is to shake things up and go for broke? Somehow Paul Wellstone got elected by Minnesotans twice. (And I believe he would have won in 2002 had he lived.) You don't need a Wellstone clone. You do need to consider that going with a lesser-known, obvious under-dog is not necessarily giving up. It might be the better way to go. You also need to consider that you don't need to be a centrist to win in Minnesota.

If I were to bet money, at this point I'd guess Franken is probably going to lose to Coleman by about the 7 points he is currently behind in the polls. If the candidate were Nelson-Pallmeyer, Otto, or one of the others, I don't know what I'd predict. It could be a 15 point win--in either direction. Not super encouraging, but better than a most likely loss.

Question to readers: If the DFL candidate isn't Al Franken, who do you think it should be? Why?

DFL delegates should take note

Delegates will undoubtedly wince to see that 51 percent off polled Minnesotans say Franken should withdraw from race.

While the Al Franken people are right in faulting the poll question for not pointing out Franken overpaid taxes in Minnesota and New York, it is still a troubling result for DFLers wanting to boot out Norm Coleman.

It remains to be seen if similar results will be replicated in another poll. If anything close to the 51 percent comes out, DFL delegates would be wise to endorse someone other than Franken, whether it be Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or a new candidate.

I believe Nelson-Pallmeyer could be a very effective candidate against Coleman. Simply put, a DFLer without baggage will be competitive against Coleman. If delegates aren't as confident in Nelson-Pallmeyer prospects as I am, they could pick a dynamic DFLer that has won a statewide election. Perhaps Mark Ritchie or Rebecca Otto?

OR ?

OK, this isn't so trivial anymore

At least we know now why it took Al Franken's accountant a couple of weeks to get to the bottom of the California tax problem!

The headline says it all: Franken owes $70,000 in back taxes in 17 states

Was somebody recently faulting the Star Tribune for blowing this out of proportion?

I maintain that this isn't the kind of problem that should singlehandedly bring down Franken's campaign, but one can't dismiss its significance. While the figure and scale is big, the Franken people are implying that it stems from the same misunderstanding of tax law. They continue to blame the accounting firm.

It could very well be that the accounting firm is incompetent and gave horribly faulty advice. But the very fact that Franken was unable to figure out about himself what the Republicans uncovered fairly easily is troubling.

This will probably not foil Franken's DFL endorsement, but it can't help. I won't say that delegates should dump Franken for Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, but perhaps they should give the question some serious consideration. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer might truly be the better pick to take on Norm Coleman. Hopefully, he doesn't owe tens of thousands of dollars in back taxes.

McCain/Obama/Clinton administrations: Minnesota personnel

We've talked about the running mate odds already. Let's get even more ahead of ourselves and discuss which Minnesota politicians may be snatched to serve in the next administration.

First off, in the unlikely, but unfortunately possible, scenario of a McCain presidency. A lot of high profile current and former Republicans are off the table because they lack experience or have been discredited. It's difficult to see Michele Bachmann or Rod Grams serving in an administration.

• Tim Pawlenty - Conventional wisdom continues to build that Pawlenty is at the top of McCain's running mate list. If the governor does not become McCain's running mate, don't count a Governor Molnau out. Pawlenty could be a cabinet member; particularly but not necessarily the Secretary of Health and Human Services or Secretary of Education.
• Jim Ramstad - I don't know how Ramstad and McCain regard each other, but both have a reputation of bucking the party line in Congress. McCain, while a "maverick," is still a by-and-large conservative. Ramstad is a true moderate, particularly on social issues. Ramstad is retiring from Congress. His appointment wouldn't put a Republican seat in danger (it already is). Ramstad might not be a cabinet level appointment, but still in line for some administration job. Ramstad could serve the administration in a health care capacity or perhaps law enforcement.
• John Kline - Kline may or may not be out of a job come January. The Republican congressman has been a steadfast supporter of the war and is a consistent conservative. Whether or not he is reelected this fall, Kline could be a pick to serve as a higher-up in the Department of Veterans Affairs or perhaps in the Pentagon.
• Norm Coleman - Should Coleman lose election this fall, but McCain wins (an unlikely combination), he might be able to get employed in some capacity in a McCain administration. Perhaps with his 5 years working on foreign relations in the Senate, Coleman could be appointed an ambassador. Perhaps ambassador to the UN, but McCain would probably want someone with more experience and intelligence in that position. If Coleman wins in the fall, he's probably not an attractive enough person to vacate a Senate seat, even if a Republican would be appointed to replace him by a Governor Pawlenty or Molnau.

(Here's a scary scenario. Remember that once upon a time Pawlenty wanted the U.S. Senate seat before Dick Cheney "persuaded" him to run for governor. Should McCain win the presidency with Charlie Crist as his running mate and Coleman win reelection too, but vacate the post when appointed the ambassador to the EU or something. Pawlenty could then resign and Gov. Molnau appoint Pawlenty to serve out the six year Senate term. It's been done before, albeit without good results. Setting that aside, who would a Gov. Pawlenty or Molnau appoint to fill an empty Coleman seat?)


An Obama presidency:

Minnesota Democrats hold more congressional and statewide seats than Republicans, but most are relative newcomers. However, some DFL politicians stick out for an opening in an Obama administration.

• Jim Oberstar - It would be hard for Oberstar to give up his chair of the House Transportation Committee. It looks like he has just gotten started there. That is, except for maybe the possibility to become the Secretary of Transportation. The resulting special election would be competitive, but Democrats would still probably be able to keep that northern Minnesota seat.
• Lori Swanson - Swanson has been tarnished in recent months with allegations of ethical breaches and union busting. At this point, the charges probably don't rise to the level to stop Swanson from being appointed a federal judge. State Democrats would probably be resistant to the idea, since the governor would have the power to appoint a successor for the attorney general.
• R.T. Rybak - The Minneapolis mayor was an early and strong supporter of Obama's. It is not too far fetched to see Rybak serving in the Department of Housing and Urban Affairs.
• Betty McCollum - McCollum's departure wouldn't worry Democrats too much. McCollum has been steadily climbing the Democratic caucus leadership ladder since elected in 2000. She may not wish to throw that away. Still, McCollum might be an attractive fit in a number of administration posts within the Department of Health and Human Services or the Department of Education. McCollum might also be the type of person appointed to the National Endowment for the Arts.

A Clinton administration:

It is doubtful, although an outside possibility that Clinton will be elected the next president. In that scenario one can assume many of the first Clinton administration loyalists would return. Clinton would undoubtedly bring in some new blood out of need and a desire to make her own mark.

Under a Clinton administration, Oberstar, Swanson, and McCollum may all still be potential candidates for appointments despite Oberstar's and McCollum's endorsements of Obama. Rybak would be out of consideration in all likelihood. Two additional names:

• Chris Coleman and Susan Gaertner - The St. Paul Mayor and the Ramsey County Attorney, respectively, have both endorsed Clinton. Coleman has also served as a public defender and prosecutor in Hennepin County. Both are top names for a gubernatorial run in 2010, but one or even both could be persuaded to take a post in Washington, DC. Either could be good fits for a Department of Justice or federal judiciary post.

Pawlenty irritates Coleman

The A-P tells us that Republican Senator Norm Coleman has expressed disappointment over Pawlenty's line item veto of Central Corridor light-rail funds this week.

Normally, I'm pretty cynical about anything Coleman does. Especially in an election year. Mr. Votes-the-Republican-Line is trying to be seen as an independent and moderate voice for this November. Most of his actions should be viewed through that lens.

But I don't think his light, but helpful, criticism of the governor is for his own personal political objectives. I would say it is genuine. Certainly, there are other Republicans Coleman can publicly disagree with in order to be seen as independent minded. Expressing disagreements with the most popular, and influential, Republican in Minnesota probably doesn't help politically. So, good for him.

Thinking about the Senate race in Minnesota

UPDATE: Doug Grow at the Minn Post writes about the DFL Senate contest. Ciresi isn't doing well initially, it appears, with state convention delegates. Nelson-Pallmeyer is doing well, but Franken remains on top. Maybe it's time for me to support Nelson-Pallmeyer as the electable candidate to retake Paul Wellstone's seat...

I'm a delegate to my DFL state senate district convention this Saturday. For you non-Minnesotans, the DFL is the Democrat Farmer-Labor party. (Find out why here.) Delegates to the local state senate district convention will elect delegates to the party's state convention in June. State delegates will determine who the DFL-endorsed U.S. Senate candidate will be. That lucky guy challenges Sen. Norm Coleman this fall.

For about five years, I've been in the Al Franken camp. Al Franken moved back to Minnesota a couple years ago to run against Coleman. I've long admired Al Franken for his humor, his political writing, and passion for progressive politics. To me, he appeared as the best chance to defeat Coleman. He's a good guy, has good positions, would run a vigorous campaign, and be able to raise important campaign funds.

So far, he's done a decent job. He's traveled around the state, racked up the endorsements, and is running a professional campaign. But a few things have given me pause. His Clinton-style caution when it comes to taking specific positions has made me nervous, even as I understand the rationale behind the strategy. He has done okay in debates with the other two DFL candidates, Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, but no slam dunks.

Two recent developments make me question Franken's electability. First, has been the now overplayed incident at Carleton College, where Franken allegedly mocked and intimidated a college Republican who was being civil to him. Franken even refused to shake the Republican's hand. I know, I know, most of us would probably like to mock and shame a college Republican here or there--but it's not something you do as a candidate for Senate in Minnesota.

This week, news emerged that Franken's family business, Al Franken, Inc, has been fined $25,000 by the state of New York for failure to pay workers comp premiums for nearly 4 years. The fine was levied in 2006 but only this week was a commitment made to pay it.

I don't think things like this should disqualify candidates, but it doesn't encourage me. That's a serious thing, to not pay workers comp for several years and to ignore the fine. It is a few times worse than unpaid parking tickets or late campaign finance filings. The question for DFLers is whether these are isolated items, or if we can expect more from Al Franken. Minnesotans want their politicians to be nice and personally responsible people.

So, the convention is just two days away and I'm undecided. Issue-wise, I'm equally split between the candidates. Even the MPR candidate selector gave me candidate scores pretty close together: Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (22.0), Mike Ciresi (21.0), Al Franken (20.0), Norm Coleman (0.0).

I'm not enthusiastic about Ciresi. Haven't we elected enough lawyers to Congress? In all seriousness, I've been unimpressed with his debate performances and what I would call significant pandering. He's also lost statewide office once and I don't know why he would win this time.

When Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer ran for Congress in 2006 in the 5th district, I was very dismissive of him. I thought of it at the time as an exercise in vanity. Still, he did very well in the party endorsement contest that Keith Ellison ultimately won. I like the fact that he doesn't shy away from issues like reproductive rights and GLBT issues.

Still, I think his approach on free trade is antiquated (as are both Obama's and Clinton's pandering in recent weeks). I'm a person who has risked arrest to try to stop an IMF-World Bank meeting. Trade agreements matter to real people around the globe. But we need to look forward, not backward. NAFTA is a done deal. Free trade is where we are today. What we need to work on now is global standards and agreements to environmental, consumer protection, social safety net, and labor practices, and find ways for the more free movement of people across sovereign borders. Borders should be just as open to people and ideas as they are to products.

So what should I do? I'll be thinking and researching over the next day. It's possible I might go into that convention Saturday still undecided.

What's the big deal?

Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) apologized this week when near identical letters to the editor criticizing Al Franken were printed in multiple papers in the state. The letters originated with the campaign and the apology was profuse.

Now, I dislike Norm Coleman just as much as any other Minnesota progressive. But is this really a big deal that many have made it out to be? Sure, it's a bit embarrassing. It's not like they did anything much different than everyone else, they just did a sloppy job by not differentiating the letters from each other.

Voters aren't going to be swayed by this non-story. DFLers should focus on all the good reasons Coleman should not be reelected this November.