Showing posts with label DFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DFL. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Circling the wagons around Al Franken

I know it's ancient news now, but the DFL endorsed Al Franken at last weekend's convention on the first ballot. It was unclear what was going to happen after the week's developments of prominent state Democrats criticizing Franken for past attempts at humor that were regarded by some as being in poor taste.

Doug Grow wrote at Minn Post of Franken's endorsement: "It was so complete that it may have closed the door on any possible primary challenge from former candidate Mike Ciresi, or any other DFLer who might have thought Franken would be beatable."

I think that may be going a little far. Though it is clear that many party delegates are feeling the need to circle their wagons around Franken if they want to beat Norm Coleman. A nasty fight at the convention might not help. They may be right.

Had the convention been unable to endorse, or had endorsed Franken after a drawn out fight, you would have certainly seen several Democrats jump on the primary contest. Franken's unexpectedly quick endorsement means he will not be challenged by many other Democrats. It is still possible that a well-funded candidate could challenge Franken in the primary. Of course, that would mean Mike Ciresi remains a possibility.

I've been pretty critical of how Franken has handled some of his problems this spring. But I'd still need some persuasion on why Ciresi would be a better pick.

I leave you with one apt quote from my own city council member, Gary Schiff: "We have to do a better job of vetting our own candidates. Our candidates should not have been put in a position of being surprised by any of this.''

Thursday, June 5, 2008

More piling on Al Franken

Now, it's Planned Parenthood.

Can we take this as another signal we'll see a high profile candidate jump in the race before the convention?

My guess is no. But I think it is pretty likely we'll see a strong challenge from someone in the DFL primary.

You just know this is going to continue.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Something amiss in the DFL?

The Star Tribune reports how some notable DFLers have openly expressed concern regarding a sexually-explicit satirical article Al Franken wrote for Playboy in 2000. I have no comment on whether the article does or should prevent a problem for Al Franken. (I'd have to read it first.) But I think it's noteworthy that Reps. McCollum, Walz, and Ellison have expressed different amounts of concern.

Associated Press reporter Frederic Frommer notes: "McCollum, Ellison and Walz are up for reelection in the fall."

But is that what this is really about?

It makes me wonder if something is amiss. Can we assume that McCollum and her congressional colleagues know something we don't? McCollum tells the Associated Press she hasn't urged Ciresi to get back into the race and notes she hasn't endorsed anyone since Ciresi left.

That doesn't rule out whether Ciresi has told her he'll jump back into the race. It also doesn't rule out whether another candidate will jump in before or after the upcoming DFL convention. McCollum herself has been suggested as a candidate (as well as Walz). I still think that's unlikely. But maybe they know or hope Ciresi or someone else will challenge Franken.

Keep your eyes open!

Monday, May 19, 2008

Sometimes you have to go for broke

I'll first start with the acknowledgment that one should be careful to not put too much stock into poll results, especially 6 months before an election. Even so, Al Franken's continuing lag behind Norm Coleman should give DFL delegates pause before endorsing him. Consider today's Star Tribune poll. You can see the overall trend from all public polls at Pollster's Minnesota Senate page.

Why should we think these polls should have bearing on this fall?

Usually, six months before the election you have people largely undecided and not really paying attention to the election. Many people who will end of voting don't even know the names the candidates. This year we have a very attentive electorate, both for the presidential and congressional races. Minnesotan voters generally pay attention to campaigns more closely. Lastly, a very high number of voters know who Norm Coleman and Al Franken are, and have probably made up their minds about both candidates. Voters will be swayed in different directions between now and November, but I suspect the number of persuadable voters is narrower than usual in this match-up.

I don't think Franken's tax troubles will blow over too much. Two years ago Keith Ellison was battling his problems on parking tickets and campaign finance reports up to election day despite the news coming out months earlier. (Yes, Ellison did win the overwhelmingly Democratic seat, but it did damage him at the polls.) Franken's tax problems are more serious and will be used by 527 groups and party committees to run television and radio ads throughout the campaign.

This is not to say Franken can't beat Coleman, but it is an uphill battle. This should be a good year for Democrats nationwide, but Minnesotans are a contrary bunch. When Democrats swept the nation in 2006, Pawlenty was elected in Minnesota. Two years after Rod Grams won the Senate seat in Minnesota, Paul Wellstone won reelection for his seat. Meaning: Thousands of Minnesota voters voted for Wellstone and Grams, just two years apart. Those two men were very different politically. It is quite possible, and perhaps most likely, to have Minnesota go strongly to Obama in the presidential race, but reelect Coleman by a comfortable margin.

If I were a delegate to the DFL convention, right now I'd be considering if there is a candidate that could do better than Al Franken against Coleman. I'd want to think creatively. Here are some people I'd consider:

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: The only other candidate in the race now and going for the endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer is behind Coleman in the polls even more than Franken, 15 points, but he is not yet the well-known figure that Franken is. Delegates need to keep in mind that anyone who gets the endorsement will get lots of media coverage and that voters over the summer will start to pay attention. If it isn't someone they don't already know, many voters will approach the candidate with an open mind. Nelson-Pallmeyer is a good campaigner. While he is a liberal (or progressive), he has sincerely held positions that match up well with voters. Nelson-Pallmeyer can claim he is of the Paul Wellstone mold more than just about any other candidate or likely candidate. (Even some of the people who voted for Coleman last time around have positive views on the late Senator.)

Mike Ciresi: Has dropped out of the race, but is almost as close to Coleman as Franken. Ciresi is not as well-known as Franken obviously, but he has run for statewide office before (unsuccessfully). It is hard to see him impressing a majority of voters. He's not an inspiring campaigner, he has yet to show he can put together a decent campaign, and he comes off as too politicky. (He panders a lot.)

Rebecca Otto: The current state auditor is one of the DFLers who has recently successfully won a statewide election. As a current elected official and someone who was on the ballot two years before, voters are somewhat familiar with her,. But she's the state auditor, i.e. Otto is a fresh face. Otto is a good campaigner. She knows how to talk to middle-of-the-road voters. She has a lot of energy. Her burgeoning political career has been built on focus on responsible and competent government. It's not sexy, but it is a way to sway some important swing voters this year.

Mark Ritchie: The current secretary of state also was a successful DFL statewide candidate two years ago. He had the small scandal involving appropriating a public list in sloppy way, but I don't think that will hurt him too much. The biggest mark against Ritchie (and Nelson-Pallmeyer) is that he lives in Minneapolis.

R.T. Rybak: Talk arises now and then of Rybak seeking higher office. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested. Rybak is a dynamic person and would run an energetic, and well-funded, campaign. If Ritchie and Nelson-Pallmeyer's problems are they are from Minneapolis, the mayor of Minneapolis would run into some problems with both suburban and rural voters.

All these candidates are a bit more of an unknown than Al Franken when it comes to their prospects for the general election. But when things aren't looking very good for the leading candidate, perhaps the answer is to shake things up and go for broke? Somehow Paul Wellstone got elected by Minnesotans twice. (And I believe he would have won in 2002 had he lived.) You don't need a Wellstone clone. You do need to consider that going with a lesser-known, obvious under-dog is not necessarily giving up. It might be the better way to go. You also need to consider that you don't need to be a centrist to win in Minnesota.

If I were to bet money, at this point I'd guess Franken is probably going to lose to Coleman by about the 7 points he is currently behind in the polls. If the candidate were Nelson-Pallmeyer, Otto, or one of the others, I don't know what I'd predict. It could be a 15 point win--in either direction. Not super encouraging, but better than a most likely loss.

Question to readers: If the DFL candidate isn't Al Franken, who do you think it should be? Why?

Monday, May 5, 2008

DFL delegates should take note

Delegates will undoubtedly wince to see that 51 percent off polled Minnesotans say Franken should withdraw from race.

While the Al Franken people are right in faulting the poll question for not pointing out Franken overpaid taxes in Minnesota and New York, it is still a troubling result for DFLers wanting to boot out Norm Coleman.

It remains to be seen if similar results will be replicated in another poll. If anything close to the 51 percent comes out, DFL delegates would be wise to endorse someone other than Franken, whether it be Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or a new candidate.

I believe Nelson-Pallmeyer could be a very effective candidate against Coleman. Simply put, a DFLer without baggage will be competitive against Coleman. If delegates aren't as confident in Nelson-Pallmeyer prospects as I am, they could pick a dynamic DFLer that has won a statewide election. Perhaps Mark Ritchie or Rebecca Otto?
OR ?

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Swansongate continues

Last week, the Legislative Auditor told a House Committee that he would begin a "preliminary inquiry" into the allegations of wrongdoings in the Attorney General's office. His inquiry would not include the alleged anti-union activities. Apparently, non-partisan lawyers have told the DFL House leadership that such an investigation may constitute an interference in labor relations and violate federal labor law.

Rep. Steve Simon (DFL-St. Louis Park) had been pushing the Legislative Auditor, Jim Nobles, to begin an investigation until Nobles said he would initiate it voluntarily without a legislative committee motion. But here's the question, is Simon carefully doing his constitutional duty by pressing for an investigation into the highest ranking DFLer's alleged wrongdoing? Or, is Simon have a personal vendetta against Swanson and is exacting his revenge with the help of a runaway union leadership and former DFL House leader and Hatch nemesis Matt Entenza?

Some DFLers in the Swanson-Hatch camp believe more in the latter. Adding to the inter-party fighting, Minn Post reporter G.R. Anderson has uncovered an email sent by Rep. Debra Hilstrom (DFL-Brooklyn Center) to other DFL House members. Hilstrom forwards information from former Attorney General Mike Hatch and Swanson mentor that suggests that Simon is being driven to take down Swanson because he was "involuntarily transfered" by Swanson when they both worked in the AG's office under Hatch.

Hilstrom and Simon have reportedly already talked and resolved their differences. Though Simon noted, in part: "I think the implication that my transfer years ago to another division makes me a disgruntled employee is absurd and makes it look like [Hatch and Swanson] have something to hide."

No news yet on when the Office of the Legislative Auditor will release its preliminary findings. Many eyes will be on that report, but it will still be only part of the puzzle since the union-busting allegations remain unresolved.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

DFL SD 62 delegates

The chair of the SD 62 DFL, Loren Olson, emailed out the results of the elected delegates from last Saturday's convention. The delegates were elected for the 5th District Congressional Convention (where the party endorsement for the 5th CD will be considered and some delegates to the Democrat National Convention in Denver will be elected). The same individual delegates go to the state DFL convention this June in Rochester. That convention, among other things, will make an endorsement decision in the U.S. Senate race and select delegates for Denver as well.

The 28 delegates from SD 62 are broken down the following way:
  • 13 of the delegates came from Al Franken subcaucuses
  • 10 delegates came from Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer subcaucuses
  • 4 delegates came from subcaucuses which were uncommitted for Senate
  • 1 delegate came from a Mike Ciresi subcaucus
It's a strong showing for Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Although, if Nelson-Pallmeyer is going to be competitive at the state convention in a two-way race, he probably would need to do better in his own senate district. Nelson-Pallmeyer was at the SD 62 convention during part of the subcaucusing, even trying to persuade some members of uncommitted subcaucuses that he was their man.

One thing is for certain, those five delegates from the uncommitted and Ciresi subcaucuses will have some busy phone lines pretty soon. Of course, the committed delegates will not be ignored either.

Monday, March 10, 2008

And then there were two


I guess his campaign really never took off. He says he's dropping out to avoid "an unnecessary floor fight" at the June DFL convention. As things were going, it is arguable whether he was going to be able to even last past the first ballot with so few committed delegates. It will be interesting to see if this helps Al Franken or allow further attention/support to coalesce around Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.

My musings on the Senate race from last week are here.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

DFL SD 62 convention

Yesterday's DFL Senate District 62 convention was an exercise in patience, but it did afford many opportunities in humor. I've always seen myself as this extremely lefty progressive. Then I moved into this neighborhood and met real crazy liberals that make me feel like a raging conservative.

That might be a slight exaggeration, but not by much. I got a lot of laughs out of the implausible resolutions we voted on for inclusion in the DFL constitution or platform. One was to have a three month waiting period for Congress to declare war. First, such a change would require an amendment of the constitution. Second, the Iraq congressional vote was some months before military action, so such a waiting period wouldn't have made a difference there. Third, it would just make the party look clueless, radical, and out of touch--even more so than the city council of Berkeley, California.

The endless debate about rules and process weren't as endless as they have been at similar gatherings in the past. My favorite was the proposal and debate to amend the rules to change the time allotted to non-statewide campaigns from 2 minutes to 1 minute. At that point, we had already had two two-minute speeches and were in line two get just another two or three over the course of the day. The proposal was debated and defeated. Another thing I learned is that all you have to do is label something "undemocratic" to immediately get a sizable portion of the room to oppose something. No listening or critical thought required!

Then comes the sub-caucusing part. Out of a group of 848 delegates, a subcaucus needed to have at least 31 members in order to elect a delegate to the state and congressional conventions. Initially a full 54 different subcaucuses were named. Less than half would ultimately survive. Some seemed a bit repetitive.

The list of initial subcaucuses:
  1. Clinton-Franken
  2. Franken-Environment
  3. Obama-Franken-DFL Victory
  4. Franken-Gay Marriage
  5. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-End the War
  6. Uncommitted-Justice for Palestinians
  7. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Stop Global Warming
  8. Franken-Pro-Choice
  9. Uncommitted-Pro-Endorsement
  10. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Single Payer Healthcare
  11. Obama
  12. Franken-Universal Healthcare
  13. Uncommitted-Stop Foreclosures and End the War
  14. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Obama-Change
  15. Obama-Students and Young Voters
  16. Ciresi
  17. Uncommitted-Labor-Steal-proof Elections and Let's Hear it for the Middle Class
  18. Obama-Ellison-Anti-War
  19. Uncommitted-Defeat Norm Coleman
  20. Franken-Healthcare
  21. Uncommitted for Senate-Obama
  22. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-The America I Believe in Does Not Torture
  23. Franken-Ellison-Get Out of Iraq
  24. Franken-Labor
  25. Uncommitted-End No Child Left Behind
  26. Uncommitted-Save Neighborhood Revitalization Program
  27. Uncommitted for Senate-Universal Single-Payer Health Care for All
  28. Uncommitted-Paid Family Leave-Childcare
  29. Obama-GLBT Equality
  30. Obama-Education-Poverty
  31. Uncommitted for Senate-Clinton-Take Back America
  32. Uncommitted-Immigration Issues
  33. Uncommitted-Environment-Stop Global Warming
  34. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-GLBT
  35. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Health Care for People Not Profit
  36. Uncommitted-Peace Activists for Minnesota Veteran Benefits
  37. Franken-Ellison-Champions for Labor
  38. Obama-Instant Runoff Voting
  39. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-More Trees Less Bush
  40. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Save Neighborhood Revitalization Program
  41. Uncommitted-Labor-Economic Justice
  42. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-For Environmental Sustainability
  43. Obama-Franken-Protect Civil Liberties
  44. Uncommitted-U.S. Constitution-Mother Earth-All Citizens Equal-Common Sense
  45. Obama-Franke-Ellison-Human Rights
  46. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Full GLBT Equality
  47. Uncommitted-Global Responsibility
  48. Franken-Sustainable Living-Elder Care
  49. Clinton-For President
  50. Uncommitted-Minnesota Great Outdoors and Heritage Amendment
  51. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-Neighborhood Revitalization Program
  52. Uncommitted-Strong Economy
  53. Obama-Franken-Single Payer
  54. Franken-Let Al Speak*
* This last one was proposed as a rhetorical point to allow Al Franken to address the convention even though a surrogate had used the alloted five minutes time. A compromise was proposed, debated, and voted on and Franken was able to speak.

I went undecided and subcaucused with the Undecided-Beat Norm Coleman. I left before the final subcaucusing and am not sure about the final tally of delegates. One conclusion, Ciresi wasn't very strong in this group.

I've not been to a Republican caucus. If I may take some creative liberties, I'll suggest that if the room was full of Republican activists there would fewer subcacuses. Perhaps it would be the following:
  1. Save Marriage, Save Our Families
  2. Save Embryos/Fetuses, Save Our Families
  3. Lock 'em Up, Send 'em Home, No More Immigrants, Save Our Families
  4. No More Taxes, Save Our Families
  5. Fight the Terrorists in Iraq, Stay the Course
  6. Fight the Islamo-fascists in Iran-John McCain
  7. Home Schooling-No More Dept of Education!-Teach Intelligent Design
This is just guessing on my part. I'll have the opportunity to see Republican activists from around the country when the Republican National Convention comes to town.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Thinking about the Senate race in Minnesota

UPDATE: Doug Grow at the Minn Post writes about the DFL Senate contest. Ciresi isn't doing well initially, it appears, with state convention delegates. Nelson-Pallmeyer is doing well, but Franken remains on top. Maybe it's time for me to support Nelson-Pallmeyer as the electable candidate to retake Paul Wellstone's seat...

I'm a delegate to my DFL state senate district convention this Saturday. For you non-Minnesotans, the DFL is the Democrat Farmer-Labor party. (Find out why here.) Delegates to the local state senate district convention will elect delegates to the party's state convention in June. State delegates will determine who the DFL-endorsed U.S. Senate candidate will be. That lucky guy challenges Sen. Norm Coleman this fall.

For about five years, I've been in the Al Franken camp. Al Franken moved back to Minnesota a couple years ago to run against Coleman. I've long admired Al Franken for his humor, his political writing, and passion for progressive politics. To me, he appeared as the best chance to defeat Coleman. He's a good guy, has good positions, would run a vigorous campaign, and be able to raise important campaign funds.

So far, he's done a decent job. He's traveled around the state, racked up the endorsements, and is running a professional campaign. But a few things have given me pause. His Clinton-style caution when it comes to taking specific positions has made me nervous, even as I understand the rationale behind the strategy. He has done okay in debates with the other two DFL candidates, Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, but no slam dunks.

Two recent developments make me question Franken's electability. First, has been the now overplayed incident at Carleton College, where Franken allegedly mocked and intimidated a college Republican who was being civil to him. Franken even refused to shake the Republican's hand. I know, I know, most of us would probably like to mock and shame a college Republican here or there--but it's not something you do as a candidate for Senate in Minnesota.

This week, news emerged that Franken's family business, Al Franken, Inc, has been fined $25,000 by the state of New York for failure to pay workers comp premiums for nearly 4 years. The fine was levied in 2006 but only this week was a commitment made to pay it.

I don't think things like this should disqualify candidates, but it doesn't encourage me. That's a serious thing, to not pay workers comp for several years and to ignore the fine. It is a few times worse than unpaid parking tickets or late campaign finance filings. The question for DFLers is whether these are isolated items, or if we can expect more from Al Franken. Minnesotans want their politicians to be nice and personally responsible people.

So, the convention is just two days away and I'm undecided. Issue-wise, I'm equally split between the candidates. Even the MPR candidate selector gave me candidate scores pretty close together: Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (22.0), Mike Ciresi (21.0), Al Franken (20.0), Norm Coleman (0.0).

I'm not enthusiastic about Ciresi. Haven't we elected enough lawyers to Congress? In all seriousness, I've been unimpressed with his debate performances and what I would call significant pandering. He's also lost statewide office once and I don't know why he would win this time.

When Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer ran for Congress in 2006 in the 5th district, I was very dismissive of him. I thought of it at the time as an exercise in vanity. Still, he did very well in the party endorsement contest that Keith Ellison ultimately won. I like the fact that he doesn't shy away from issues like reproductive rights and GLBT issues.

Still, I think his approach on free trade is antiquated (as are both Obama's and Clinton's pandering in recent weeks). I'm a person who has risked arrest to try to stop an IMF-World Bank meeting. Trade agreements matter to real people around the globe. But we need to look forward, not backward. NAFTA is a done deal. Free trade is where we are today. What we need to work on now is global standards and agreements to environmental, consumer protection, social safety net, and labor practices, and find ways for the more free movement of people across sovereign borders. Borders should be just as open to people and ideas as they are to products.

So what should I do? I'll be thinking and researching over the next day. It's possible I might go into that convention Saturday still undecided.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

DFL to fire Molnau soon?

From the Star Tribune: DFL may fire Molnau Thursday, Senate leaders say

Looking forward to it. Hopefully she can be replaced with someone who can run this important agency.