Sometimes you have to go for broke

I'll first start with the acknowledgment that one should be careful to not put too much stock into poll results, especially 6 months before an election. Even so, Al Franken's continuing lag behind Norm Coleman should give DFL delegates pause before endorsing him. Consider today's Star Tribune poll. You can see the overall trend from all public polls at Pollster's Minnesota Senate page.

Why should we think these polls should have bearing on this fall?

Usually, six months before the election you have people largely undecided and not really paying attention to the election. Many people who will end of voting don't even know the names the candidates. This year we have a very attentive electorate, both for the presidential and congressional races. Minnesotan voters generally pay attention to campaigns more closely. Lastly, a very high number of voters know who Norm Coleman and Al Franken are, and have probably made up their minds about both candidates. Voters will be swayed in different directions between now and November, but I suspect the number of persuadable voters is narrower than usual in this match-up.

I don't think Franken's tax troubles will blow over too much. Two years ago Keith Ellison was battling his problems on parking tickets and campaign finance reports up to election day despite the news coming out months earlier. (Yes, Ellison did win the overwhelmingly Democratic seat, but it did damage him at the polls.) Franken's tax problems are more serious and will be used by 527 groups and party committees to run television and radio ads throughout the campaign.

This is not to say Franken can't beat Coleman, but it is an uphill battle. This should be a good year for Democrats nationwide, but Minnesotans are a contrary bunch. When Democrats swept the nation in 2006, Pawlenty was elected in Minnesota. Two years after Rod Grams won the Senate seat in Minnesota, Paul Wellstone won reelection for his seat. Meaning: Thousands of Minnesota voters voted for Wellstone and Grams, just two years apart. Those two men were very different politically. It is quite possible, and perhaps most likely, to have Minnesota go strongly to Obama in the presidential race, but reelect Coleman by a comfortable margin.

If I were a delegate to the DFL convention, right now I'd be considering if there is a candidate that could do better than Al Franken against Coleman. I'd want to think creatively. Here are some people I'd consider:

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: The only other candidate in the race now and going for the endorsement. Nelson-Pallmeyer is behind Coleman in the polls even more than Franken, 15 points, but he is not yet the well-known figure that Franken is. Delegates need to keep in mind that anyone who gets the endorsement will get lots of media coverage and that voters over the summer will start to pay attention. If it isn't someone they don't already know, many voters will approach the candidate with an open mind. Nelson-Pallmeyer is a good campaigner. While he is a liberal (or progressive), he has sincerely held positions that match up well with voters. Nelson-Pallmeyer can claim he is of the Paul Wellstone mold more than just about any other candidate or likely candidate. (Even some of the people who voted for Coleman last time around have positive views on the late Senator.)

Mike Ciresi: Has dropped out of the race, but is almost as close to Coleman as Franken. Ciresi is not as well-known as Franken obviously, but he has run for statewide office before (unsuccessfully). It is hard to see him impressing a majority of voters. He's not an inspiring campaigner, he has yet to show he can put together a decent campaign, and he comes off as too politicky. (He panders a lot.)

Rebecca Otto: The current state auditor is one of the DFLers who has recently successfully won a statewide election. As a current elected official and someone who was on the ballot two years before, voters are somewhat familiar with her,. But she's the state auditor, i.e. Otto is a fresh face. Otto is a good campaigner. She knows how to talk to middle-of-the-road voters. She has a lot of energy. Her burgeoning political career has been built on focus on responsible and competent government. It's not sexy, but it is a way to sway some important swing voters this year.

Mark Ritchie: The current secretary of state also was a successful DFL statewide candidate two years ago. He had the small scandal involving appropriating a public list in sloppy way, but I don't think that will hurt him too much. The biggest mark against Ritchie (and Nelson-Pallmeyer) is that he lives in Minneapolis.

R.T. Rybak: Talk arises now and then of Rybak seeking higher office. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested. Rybak is a dynamic person and would run an energetic, and well-funded, campaign. If Ritchie and Nelson-Pallmeyer's problems are they are from Minneapolis, the mayor of Minneapolis would run into some problems with both suburban and rural voters.

All these candidates are a bit more of an unknown than Al Franken when it comes to their prospects for the general election. But when things aren't looking very good for the leading candidate, perhaps the answer is to shake things up and go for broke? Somehow Paul Wellstone got elected by Minnesotans twice. (And I believe he would have won in 2002 had he lived.) You don't need a Wellstone clone. You do need to consider that going with a lesser-known, obvious under-dog is not necessarily giving up. It might be the better way to go. You also need to consider that you don't need to be a centrist to win in Minnesota.

If I were to bet money, at this point I'd guess Franken is probably going to lose to Coleman by about the 7 points he is currently behind in the polls. If the candidate were Nelson-Pallmeyer, Otto, or one of the others, I don't know what I'd predict. It could be a 15 point win--in either direction. Not super encouraging, but better than a most likely loss.

Question to readers: If the DFL candidate isn't Al Franken, who do you think it should be? Why?

McCain/Obama/Clinton administrations: Minnesota personnel

We've talked about the running mate odds already. Let's get even more ahead of ourselves and discuss which Minnesota politicians may be snatched to serve in the next administration.

First off, in the unlikely, but unfortunately possible, scenario of a McCain presidency. A lot of high profile current and former Republicans are off the table because they lack experience or have been discredited. It's difficult to see Michele Bachmann or Rod Grams serving in an administration.

• Tim Pawlenty - Conventional wisdom continues to build that Pawlenty is at the top of McCain's running mate list. If the governor does not become McCain's running mate, don't count a Governor Molnau out. Pawlenty could be a cabinet member; particularly but not necessarily the Secretary of Health and Human Services or Secretary of Education.
• Jim Ramstad - I don't know how Ramstad and McCain regard each other, but both have a reputation of bucking the party line in Congress. McCain, while a "maverick," is still a by-and-large conservative. Ramstad is a true moderate, particularly on social issues. Ramstad is retiring from Congress. His appointment wouldn't put a Republican seat in danger (it already is). Ramstad might not be a cabinet level appointment, but still in line for some administration job. Ramstad could serve the administration in a health care capacity or perhaps law enforcement.
• John Kline - Kline may or may not be out of a job come January. The Republican congressman has been a steadfast supporter of the war and is a consistent conservative. Whether or not he is reelected this fall, Kline could be a pick to serve as a higher-up in the Department of Veterans Affairs or perhaps in the Pentagon.
• Norm Coleman - Should Coleman lose election this fall, but McCain wins (an unlikely combination), he might be able to get employed in some capacity in a McCain administration. Perhaps with his 5 years working on foreign relations in the Senate, Coleman could be appointed an ambassador. Perhaps ambassador to the UN, but McCain would probably want someone with more experience and intelligence in that position. If Coleman wins in the fall, he's probably not an attractive enough person to vacate a Senate seat, even if a Republican would be appointed to replace him by a Governor Pawlenty or Molnau.

(Here's a scary scenario. Remember that once upon a time Pawlenty wanted the U.S. Senate seat before Dick Cheney "persuaded" him to run for governor. Should McCain win the presidency with Charlie Crist as his running mate and Coleman win reelection too, but vacate the post when appointed the ambassador to the EU or something. Pawlenty could then resign and Gov. Molnau appoint Pawlenty to serve out the six year Senate term. It's been done before, albeit without good results. Setting that aside, who would a Gov. Pawlenty or Molnau appoint to fill an empty Coleman seat?)


An Obama presidency:

Minnesota Democrats hold more congressional and statewide seats than Republicans, but most are relative newcomers. However, some DFL politicians stick out for an opening in an Obama administration.

• Jim Oberstar - It would be hard for Oberstar to give up his chair of the House Transportation Committee. It looks like he has just gotten started there. That is, except for maybe the possibility to become the Secretary of Transportation. The resulting special election would be competitive, but Democrats would still probably be able to keep that northern Minnesota seat.
• Lori Swanson - Swanson has been tarnished in recent months with allegations of ethical breaches and union busting. At this point, the charges probably don't rise to the level to stop Swanson from being appointed a federal judge. State Democrats would probably be resistant to the idea, since the governor would have the power to appoint a successor for the attorney general.
• R.T. Rybak - The Minneapolis mayor was an early and strong supporter of Obama's. It is not too far fetched to see Rybak serving in the Department of Housing and Urban Affairs.
• Betty McCollum - McCollum's departure wouldn't worry Democrats too much. McCollum has been steadily climbing the Democratic caucus leadership ladder since elected in 2000. She may not wish to throw that away. Still, McCollum might be an attractive fit in a number of administration posts within the Department of Health and Human Services or the Department of Education. McCollum might also be the type of person appointed to the National Endowment for the Arts.

A Clinton administration:

It is doubtful, although an outside possibility that Clinton will be elected the next president. In that scenario one can assume many of the first Clinton administration loyalists would return. Clinton would undoubtedly bring in some new blood out of need and a desire to make her own mark.

Under a Clinton administration, Oberstar, Swanson, and McCollum may all still be potential candidates for appointments despite Oberstar's and McCollum's endorsements of Obama. Rybak would be out of consideration in all likelihood. Two additional names:

• Chris Coleman and Susan Gaertner - The St. Paul Mayor and the Ramsey County Attorney, respectively, have both endorsed Clinton. Coleman has also served as a public defender and prosecutor in Hennepin County. Both are top names for a gubernatorial run in 2010, but one or even both could be persuaded to take a post in Washington, DC. Either could be good fits for a Department of Justice or federal judiciary post.