Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Out of tragedy


It's heartbreaking to read the news some days. Horrific tragedies inundate our eyes and ears seemingly constantly.

Today, the Star Tribune runs a more heartwarming piece. It's about the child of a woman murdered 14 years ago and raised by her grandparents. For me, it serves as a reminder of the lasting effect each of these stories we hear about each day have on peoples' lives, but also that life does go on, even for those touched by tragedy. The headline sums it up.

I know Luanne, the grandmother, and she's a wonderful person. Luanne is a union activist who successfully ran for the Minnesota House of Representatives not long after her daughter was killed. In the Legislature, she was a tireless advocate for countless causes, and remains an energetic advocate in her "post-legislative career." Luanne decided not to run again for election after her knees stopped allowing her to doorknock the thousands of homes in her district. Keep in mind this is a woman in her 60s raising a teenager at the time.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Election day in Wisconsin and Hawaii

Today on the Democratic side of the presidential run features Wisconsin and Hawaii. Expectations are that it will be close, although Obama is favored in both states. One article I read from the AP notes that Obama is from Wisconsin's neighboring state of Illinois, implying that gave him an advantage. It fails to note that Clinton is a native Chicagoan herself, or that being from Chicago is not necessarily an advantage with Wisconsin voters.

Each summer, thousands of tourists from Illinois flood over the border to Wisconsin. They practically take the state over. They do much for the Wisconsin economy, and probably wouldn't offend the natives too much if it weren't for their overwhelmingly aggressive driving. If it's summer and someone cuts you off on the highway in Wisconsin, chances are they have an Illinois license plate. The decal in the back window for the Chicago Bears just adds insult to injury.

I'm looking curiously to how the media will spin the results of today's primaries. They've been kind of ignoring them, looking more at the March 4 primary contests in Ohio and Texas, which are more advantageous to Clinton. One kind of thinks that there must be a media conspiracy to keep the nomination contest alive by downplaying Obama's recent and anticipated successes and passing on Clinton's flimsy attacks on Obama without any critical investigation. I say "almost." I don't really believe in media conspiracies, or most other conspiracies for that matter. I do wonder if the conventional wisdom of media professionals is to handle Clinton with more kid gloves after their New Hampshire embarrassment. Of course, there are some notable exceptions to that trend.

Dude!

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Valentines and gnocchi

A nice essay on Valentine's Day, cooking pasta, and hope: Of Valentine's jinxes and packaged gnocchi - Rebecca Traister at Salon.com.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Cruising the Great Lakes

The Star Tribune reports that a company is working to start a cruise line from Duluth to Toronto. Now this is no disrespect to either of the fine cities of Duluth or Toronto, but who would go on that? I imagine that even in the middle of summer, it will be cold as can be in the middle of Lake Superior. And do a lot of people in Toronto find themselves wanting to sail to Duluth, and vice versa?

But what do I know? I'm not in the tourism business. Apparently a similar cruise to Chicago was done last year, though it experienced some problems. The Star Tribune article notes:

"After a Great Lakes tour that was supposed to end in Chicago, it learned there were no marine terminals on the Great Lakes certified to accept foreign travelers.

"Ultimately, he says, its passengers had to disembark on lifeboats bound for Canada then take buses through a land checkpoint into the United States."


Ooops! Someone didn't do their homework! The company behind the Duluth-Toronto cruise is working with the Department of Homeland security for a better way ahead of their cruises.



Won't Get Fooled

If I could pick one concert I would have liked to have attended, it may very well be from the below video with all the members of The Who. I think it's an apt song for an election season. Here's hoping that the new boss won't be the same as the old boss.



For another take on The Who, here's the Blue Man Group doing Baba O'Riley...

Monday, February 11, 2008

Who can beat McCain?

MORE PREDICTIONS! Yes! So, the debate is now who can better beat John McCain, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? The Republicans appear to be doing what I didn't think they could do this year: choose the most electable candidate. Despite this, I'm going with conventional wisdom and saying the Democrats still go into this election with an advantage. That being said, it's no done deal. This will likely be a competitive election.

I've never been of the camp that holds Clinton is not electable or that the Democrats shouldn't nominate her because of her electability. I do, however, believe Obama is more likely to prevail against McCain. That just adds to the many reasons I voted for him on Super Tuesday.

A few head-to-head polls show Obama doing better against McCain. That is part of the picture, but we should go straight to the Electoral College to investigate true competitiveness.

Below I've made my own assessment of the competitiveness of each state in the two match-ups. In both, Clinton and Obama are likely to prevail in the same states. Obama's advantage, in part because he isn't as devisive of a candidate as Clinton, is where he can make traditionally Republican leaning states competitive.

The winner needs 270 electoral votes to win. Both Democrats start with an advantage. But Obama is going to be able to go after some additional states. Just by picking up one or two of these Republican leaning states he can increase his margin substantially. What's more, this will allow the financially-advantaged Obama to make McCain spread his resources wider as he will have to shore up states like North Carolina and Virginia.

Some of my designations would probably spark some disagreement, which is fair. This is all highly speculative. My main point is that Obama is competitive in more states than Clinton in a match-up with McCain. I think it is difficult to assert the opposite.



STATE Electoral College Votes MCCAIN V. CLINTON PREDICTION
MCCAIN V. OBAMA PREDICTION
California 55 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Connecticut 7 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
DC 3 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Delaware 3 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Hawaii 4 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Illinois 21 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Massachusetts 12 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
New York 31 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Rhode Island 4 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Vermont 3 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Washington 11 SOLID CLINTON
SOLID OBAMA
Iowa 7 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Maine 4 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Maryland 10 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Michigan 17 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Minnesota 10 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
New Jersey 15 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Oregon 7 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Pennsylvania 21 LEAN CLINTON
LEAN OBAMA
Colorado 9 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Florida 27 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Missouri 11 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Nevada 5 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
New Hampshire 4 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
New Mexico 5 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Ohio 20 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Tennessee 11 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
West Virginia 5 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Wisconsin 10 TOSS-UP
TOSS-UP
Arkansas 6 TOSS-UP
LEAN MCCAIN
Kansas 6 LEAN MCCAIN
TOSS-UP
North Carolina 15 LEAN MCCAIN
TOSS-UP
Alaska 3 LEAN MCCAIN
LEAN MCCAIN
Montana 3 LEAN MCCAIN
LEAN MCCAIN
Georgia 15 SOLID MCCAIN
LEAN MCCAIN
Louisiana 9 SOLID MCCAIN
LEAN MCCAIN
Virginia 13 SOLID MCCAIN
LEAN MCCAIN
Alabama 9 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Arizona 10 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Idaho 4 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Indiana 11 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Kentucky 8 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Mississippi 6 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Nebraska 5 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
North Dakota 3 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Oklahoma 7 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
South Carolina 8 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
South Dakota 3 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Texas 34 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Utah 5 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN
Wyoming 3 SOLID MCCAIN
SOLID MCCAIN


CLINTON v. MCCAIN
SOLID CLINTON: 154 ALL CLINTON: 245
LEAN CLINTON: 91
TOSS-UP: 113 TOSS-UP: 113
LEAN MCCAIN: 27 ALL MCCAIN: 180
SOLID MCCAIN: 153


OBAMA v. MCCAIN

SOLID OBAMA: 154 ALL OBAMA: 245
LEAN OBAMA: 91
TOSS-UP: 128 TOSS-UP: 128
LEAN MCCAIN: 49 ALL MCCAIN: 175
SOLID MCCAIN: 116

Today's Quote: Marriage

This month's Atlantic magazine features an essay that no doubt sparks a bit of controversy: The Case for settling for Mr. Good Enough by Lori Gottlieb. It's a lengthy and thoughtful piece, written from the perspective of a woman in her 40s who has decided to have a child by herself, attributing her lack of husband to being too picky in her 20s and 30s.

She questions what it means to be single and what it means to be married. At one point she describes marriage in the following, non-romantic way:
"It sounds obvious now, but I didn’t fully appreciate back then that what makes for a good marriage isn’t necessarily what makes for a good romantic relationship. Once you’re married, it’s not about whom you want to go on vacation with; it’s about whom you want to run a household with. Marriage isn’t a passion-fest; it’s more like a partnership formed to run a very small, mundane, and often boring nonprofit business. And I mean this in a good way."

I guess it's a little more optimistic than Marge Simpson, who once said: "Marriage is a constant battle for moral superiority." Or more on point, Edna Krabappel who said, "Ha ha ha. Children, most of you will never fall in love, but marry out of fear of dying alone."

Still, the comparison with running a nonprofit enterprise strikes me as spot on. I would say that it is definitely desirable to want to take vacations with your spouse, though. In fact, I think taking a trip with someone is a great test to the long-term potential of the relationship. You are in close proximity for a length of time. It's an opportunity to connect and have fun together. And of course all traveling involves lots of opportunities to negotiate and deal with unanticipated problems compounded by lack of sleep and stress!

In all seriousness, Gottlieb makes some good points about how we think about romance and marriage. She theorizes that "settling" means more and is increasingly difficult the older you get because you get more set in your ways and accustomed to the independence of being single. Still, there is much to criticize. It is hard for me to understand the perspective of a never-married, single mother in her 40s on issues of marriage, but she has a bit too much confidence with some of her assertions.

Like this one: "...every woman I know—no matter how successful and ambitious, how financially and emotionally secure—feels panic, occasionally coupled with desperation, if she hits 30 and finds herself unmarried.

"Oh, I know—I’m guessing there are single 30-year-old women reading this right now who will be writing letters to the editor to say that the women I know aren’t widely representative, that I’ve been co-opted by the cult of the feminist backlash, and basically, that I have no idea what I’m talking about. And all I can say is, if you say you’re not worried, either you’re in denial or you’re lying. In fact, take a good look in the mirror and try to convince yourself that you’re not worried, because you’ll see how silly your face looks when you’re being disingenuous."

My guess is that there are plenty of single 30 year-old women who are not in denial and perfectly fine not jumping on the marriage bandwagon. Here's one right off the bat from Feministing.com. (The shortened response is here.) Yes, there may be a large segment of the population that has unrealistic expectations of marriage and child-rearing and find themselves running out of time. But I doubt it is universal. Hardly anything is.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Buy this book

Last year the better half got me a great book for Valentine's Day, called Alternadad. It's a hilarious and thoughtful book about raising a kid in today's hipster world. Even if you wouldn't identify yourself as a hipster (as I surely don't) or as part of the "alternative culture" (whatever that means), you'll probably enjoy it.

Neal Pollack honestly writes about his journey to parenthood and the first 3 or 4 years as a father struggling to embrace his new identity without losing too much of the old identity. He also doesn't want his son to have what he sees as the dry, meaningless, suburban upbringing that he endured.

Next week, the book comes out in paperback. Get it at Amazon.com today or request it at your local bookstore. I can confidently assert that it is a great Valentine's or other occasion gift for the father of a young kid.

Incidentally, Pollack is the author of a few blogs on parenting, the most updated being the one hosted by Parents magazine's website.


Today's featured article: Clinton's experience

This week Newseek carries a piece by Fareed Zakaria that discusses Senator Clinton's "experience" as it relates to her presidential bid. Entitled, The Wrong Experience, Zakaria makes the case that Clinton's background and experience lend her to be too cautious.

Zakaria identifies some of my concerns with both of the Clintons. They too readily sell-out their position or co-opt their allies in the name of political pragmatism.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday!

The day is here! Super Tuesday! It's like a holiday. Made even more exciting is the fact that no one knows what's going to happen.

I'm going with the conventional wisdom and say that we're not going to have any candidates drop out tomorrow. On the Republican side, McCain will likely do very well, but I think Romney will do well enough to be in it. The Republican who wins California will probably win the nomination and that looks like John McCain right now. Huckabee will draw his standard 10-20% in each state and will stay around a bit longer despite his very long odds. I doubt Ron Paul will break 10% in any state.

Clinton and Obama will both do well enough to keep on going. The main question is who will end the day with more delegates. The momentum will go to the candidate who has the most delegates.

I suspect that neither contest will go to the respective convention. Neither Clinton nor Obama will want to wait that long and would come to some sort of agreement, even if they have enough delegates to contest it. That being said, I see no advantage to the Democrats in having a known nominee before the Republicans. A known Democratic nominee only helps John McCain, especially if the Democrat is Clinton. Even if Romney does well enough to stay in the race after today, he faces an uphill battle in the remaining states and will have to drop out within a few weeks. Who knows what Huckabee will do, but I don't think he'll be a factor in the primaries after Super Tuesday.

The next question will be, will Mike Bloomberg enter the race? And if so, when? If the Republican nominee looked to be Huckabee, I think Bloomberg would have a chance with an independent run. But if the nominees of the two parties are centrists, which is how Clinton, Obama, and McCain are presenting themselves in a general election, why would Bloomberg get much support? Maybe if it looks like Super Tuesday will solve nothing in either party and that there will be a slugfest to the conventions, that would entice him. But at this juncture I think it is unlikely.